Paper
Matthew Rojansky
{
"authors": [
"Matthew Rojansky"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Is Putin's Victory Guaranteed?
It is not certain that Putin will win the elections on Sunday, but it is very likely. If Putin is elected, he will face implications in Russia's domestic policy and its relationship with the United States.
Published on Mar 2, 2012
Source: CTV (Canada)
- Medvedev: Putin has made promises that Medvedev will be Prime Minister after the elections. However, “whether Medvedev will stay as Prime Minister I think is unlikely,” said Rojansky, adding that “in some ways, he is the perfect fall guy down the road.”
- Domestic Reforms: Given the extensive protests against Putin’s rule, and the likelihood of renewed protests after the election, “Putin is going to do what he has to do,” said Rojansky. There will be a veneer of modernization and Putin will have to make concessions to some demands, such as improving modern technology and creating more opportunities for IT and high-tech jobs. However, “Putin cannot adjust the basic bargain he has made with the oligarchs and Russia’s elite,” warned Rojansky. "If he starts to shake up that deal, those guys will turn against him.”
- Syria: Once it is clear that the Assad regime is falling, Putin cannot sustain Russia’s major financial and security interests in Syria and has no further reason for Russia to continue to support the Assad regime. “If Putin will, in fact, win on Sunday, it becomes much less important for him to draw that line in the sand that says public protests should never be allowed to bring down what he considers to be a legitimate government,” added Rojansky.
- U.S.–Russia Relations: There is a good reason to believe that Putin will sustain the reset relationship with the United States, Rojansky stated.
About the Author
Matthew Rojansky
Former Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Program
Rojansky, formerly executive director of the Partnership for a Secure America, is an expert on U.S. and Russian national security and nuclear-weapon policies.
- An Opportunity for Ambition: Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship
- Presiding Over the OSCE: Challenges and OpportunitiesIn The Media
Matthew Rojansky
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Russia’s Rubber-Stamp Duma Elections Are Exposing Schisms in Putin's RegimeCommentary
In the discussions made possible by the State Duma election campaign, one question is being asked more and more loudly. “What next?”
Andrey Pertsev
- Russia’s Best-Placed Political Émigrés Are Those With Nothing to LoseCommentary
While the Nazis rushed ahead in a revolutionary fervor, Russia’s modern crusaders against enemies of the state work methodically, giving their targets time to adjust to restrictions before closing the loopholes.
Leonid Bershidsky
- Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central AsiaCommentary
When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.
Galiya Ibragimova
- What Do the Hacked Messages of ‘Putin’s Goddaughter’ Ksenia Sobchak Reveal About Russian Politics?Commentary
Reading the purported correspondence of celebrity Ksenia Sobchak sheds light on her role within the system, and how journalism and politics function in Putin’s Russia.
Vladislav Gorin
- Russia Is Not Even a Contender in the Global AI RaceCommentary
When political power is concentrated in the hands of a small circle of people, a country invariably ends up with technological stagnation.
Aleksei Kiselev
