Speaking at Georgetown University, Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis discussed U.S.-India ties under Trump and Modi. After arguing that the situation is still unclear, he examined three propositions for how the relationship may take shape.
First, he said, it is possible that the world is facing the end of relations centered on strategic altruism. Tellis argued that, for decades, the United States has focused on transforming relations with India on the presumption that a strong India was in American national interest. This worldview may be coming to an end.
Second, Tellis said that, for necessary geopolitical reasons, the relationship will likely persist, but with more irritants. Disagreements over U.S.-Indian economic ties and domestic problems within India will potentially prevent the United states from being as committed to a strong relationship as India.
Third, whether or not the relationship accelerates depends on President Trump and the executive branch, Tellis said. He added that he hopes Washington and New Delhi can find ways to engage in practical measures, like defense cooperation, to secure a stable Asia.
Comments(3)
The third proposition is of interest and could shape the first two propositions. A strong US-India partnership is the cornerstone of a stable, secure and vibrant South Asia in context of India assuming a leading role in South Asian cooperation, the recent launch of South Asia sattelite, the common agenda of zero tolerance to terrorism (recent cooperation of Bangladesh and Nepal) and the cooperation of south Asian neighborhood (less Pakistan) is an indication of things to come and the shape of south Asian politico-economic relationship. US can play a great role in fostering this cooperation and securing the Indian Ocean region by a definitive Defense cooperation program with India and also by enlargement in South East Asia.
India can see the writing on the wall. The US foreign policy has made a paradigm shift with Trump coming into the WH. The past slogans of democracy and human rights based agenda are no longer the driving force. With this the US will take its own interest high and the so called business deals will superficially make the "America first' the corner stone. With CPEC going full steem minus India things in the neighborhood for India are not that rose. Countries like Nepal and B-desh don't matter since they are surely a proxy to New Dehli. The US will eventually deal with China but it will not be in a confrontational base. China economy and military based is significantly stronger than India. The idea that India will be able to wage war with China to defend the US is as false as the US severing ties with Israel. Pakistan being the umbilical part of the CPEC has finally out maneuvered the India idea of "isolating Pakistan." Since Indian military doesn't possess the 3:1 ratio against Pakistan the whole idea it will be able to defeat Pakistan in conventional warfare is not viable.
Having known Ashley Tellis as an academic in India, then as an academic in USA and then as a US Diplomat back in to India's Lutyen's circuit as Assistant to the US Ambassador Ashley's main task was to ensure India increased security traction with USA and to ensure India crafted a No First Use (NFU) and recessed Nuclear weapon policy and USA succeeded. Ashley's convincing ways as an Indian looking friendly American with vocal ability helped. Ashley suggested a broad Defence Framework and supported the Nuclear Deal as someone who knows India's DNA is rooted in Strategic Autonomy. Therefore his message on India US relations is clear, not to expect India to bend but USA must broaden its relationship with India for more maritime exercises and military co-operation and suggest economic reforms for both India and USA's benefit and not look for Deeper relations like Under Secretary Alice Wells USA looks to the Two Plus Two meeting to operationalise US India relationship, hinting at a military pact which India will reject as India is not ready for it though the BJP Party in power supported by RSS would like it. . In brief the message to Trump was go easy on India and accept and slowly work on it's current relations with nations USA has sanctioned and play along and show broadness of interests, being aware USA cannot forsake Pakistan but do not make that clear but show China is our common competitor..
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