Russia is swapping its dollar dependence for reliance on the yuan. Should relations with China deteriorate, Russia may face reserve losses and payment disruptions.
Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses what the next few months may have in store together with Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, and Mark Galeotti, CEO of Mayak Intelligence.
Previously, ambitious members of the Russian elites climbed the career ladder by taking part in the Leaders of Russia contest and training programs for governors. Now the career pipeline runs through Ukraine, and anyone reluctant to radicalize will find themselves sidelined.
It’s important for the Kremlin to keep the average Russian from feeling like anything actually depends on them, so it is trying to create a semblance of normalcy at a time of war.
If no “party of peace” is emerging organically in Ukraine, Moscow appears prepared to create one artificially in order to hold peace talks with Medvedchuk instead of Zelensky: effectively, with itself.
A recent poll showed that 46 percent of Serbs believe that their country should stay neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war, confirming that a balancing act appears to be the least costly strategy for the Serbian government.
The trends of 2022 in no way signal decentralization or re-federalization. Russia’s central government adheres to a simplified version of the Soviet model, which includes a rigid power vertical.
The Carnegie Politika Podcast delivers world-class analysis on what’s happening in Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Every month, Russia expert Alexander Gabuev talks to Carnegie scholars and regional analysts on the ground to respond to emerging regional trends, the future of Russian geopolitics, and how the region is shaping the world.
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