Destabilization in Moldova incited by Russia could prompt Kyiv and its allies to deprive Moscow of all its levers of influence there once and for all by purging the self-proclaimed Transnistria republic of Russia’s military presence there.
Rapidly unfolding events in Russia are effectively transforming the conflict in Ukraine from a “special operation” on someone else’s territory into a war to defend supposedly Russian land.
Russia has proven that it knows how to be a master of distraction and how to take advantage of ethnic cleavages, bolster hardline nationalist politicians, and complicate the region’s lagging reform agendas.
More frequent military failures and defeats will exacerbate the split between the war’s supporters and increase the risks for Putin’s political leadership.
Given Ukraine’s successful counterattack, the fighting there isn’t going Russia’s way. Nor is the gas supply situation in Europe nearly as grim as Russian propaganda makes out. In these circumstances, Putin finds he does not have so many ways of putting pressure on the West at his disposal. Threatening to torpedo the grain deal is one of his few remaining options.
The war in Ukraine has enabled Kazakhstan’s Tokayev to reinvent himself as a truly independent figure, no longer reliant on either his predecessor Nazarbayev or Russia’s Putin. Now Tokayev hopes to cement this status by securing a popular mandate to rule.
It’s true that Ukraine’s oligarchs corrupted the Ukrainian state and undermined effective reform and development, preventing it from escaping from its post-Soviet stagnation. But they were also a key protective mechanism against anyone else usurping power.
Having radicalized Russian ultra-patriots with imperialist slogans and actions, the Kremlin now risks its most vitriolic supporters turning against it.
In the Kremlin’s logic, resource-rich Russia is in a better position to weather the crisis than other countries. Therefore, Moscow should seize opportunities to create crises not only on the gas market, but on the oil market too.
Once the conflict is over, Russia will still be able to offer gas at very low prices, but Europe, in all likelihood, will not only not want to buy it by then; it will simply not be able to.
