collection
Carnegie China Commentaries
commentary
Betting on Itself: China’s Investment in The Pinglu Canal Will Deepen Relations with ASEAN

The Pinglu Canal promises to unlock economic benefits not just for Guangxi but also for China-ASEAN relations.

· November 25, 2024
commentary
Would U.S. Tariffs Shift Beijing’s Focus to Consumption?

Trade never clears incrementally. It only clears systemically, and external imbalances are always, and must always be, perfectly consistent with internal imbalances.

· November 19, 2024
commentary
A 10 Trillion RMB Accounting Exercise

The main focus of China’s economic policy continues to be a high dependence on exports to maintain growth, rather than any demand side program.

  • Victor Shih
· November 18, 2024
commentary
The Commercialization of Cyber Nationalism in China

Patriotic and nationalist sentiments have been co-opted by self-media and social media platforms to generate profit. This has given rise to a traffic-driven business of cyber nationalism that relies on extreme xenophobic rhetoric.

· October 24, 2024
commentary
Fixing China’s Monetary Disequilibrium to Break the Deflation Cycle

As consumers and businesses continue to hold off on spending and investment, deflationary pressures deepen, further depressing prices and economic activity.

  • Yuhan Zhang
· September 30, 2024
commentary
China Needs a Very High Consumption Share of GDP Growth

It will require many years of real determination by Beijing to drive the role of consumption to much higher levels if China is to rebalance in a nondisruptive way.

· September 9, 2024
commentary
China’s Recent Rental Strategy Is a Win for Some, a Strain for Others

While the new strategy benefits local governments and wealthy homeowners, it has different implications for China’s middle- and low-income populations.

  • Yuhan Zhang
· August 28, 2024
commentary
Is Inflation a Monetary Phenomenon in China?

Because of the way credit expansion is managed, monetary expansion in China is directed mainly toward the supply side of the economy.

· August 21, 2024
commentary
What Is Driving China’s Long-Dated Bonds?

Banks and other fixed-income investors are buying long-date government bonds because the economy is struggling and better alternatives don’t exist.

· August 14, 2024
commentary
Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s?

Ignoring the problems of its historical precedents won’t make China’s success any more likely.

· August 8, 2024
commentary
Navigating Turbulence at Second Thomas Shoal

Neither Duterte’s pivot to China policy nor Marcos’s transparency initiative is changing China’s behavior.

commentary
The Evolution of Chinese Debt in 2024

Almost everyone in economic policymaking circles is concerned about China’s high and rising debt burden, but there is little evidence that this is likely to change much in 2024.

· July 31, 2024