Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour
{
"authors": [
"Karim Sadjadpour"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran",
"Gulf"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Political Reform",
"Democracy",
"Foreign Policy",
"Nuclear Policy"
]
}Source: Getty
Iranian Dissent, Global Crackdown
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration’s efforts at engagement with Iran will affect the domestic situation, as tensions grow between the opposition leadership’s calls for reform and the movement’s younger members, who are looking for a more fundamental change.
Source: On Point

The regime has dug in its heels as the opposition has become more vehement and daring. Karim Sadjadpour suggests that “the political elites of the regime have no where to go outside of Iran and therefore will not give up power without a fight.” Ayatollah Khamenei learned from the Shah’s mistake of apologizing for past grievances, which opened the door for the Islamic revolution to overthrow the Shah in 1979. Accordingly, “Khamenei has created a zero-sum game”, notes Sadjadpour, where his regime will fight to the bitter end.
The approach of the Obama administration with regards to engagement has unsettled the regime and created dissension among the political elites over how to respond to Obama’s overtures. The administration’s efforts at engagement have demonstrated that “the problems lie in Tehran, not in Washington,” according to Sadjadpour.
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.
- Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?Q&A
- What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for NowQ&A
Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- The Spring and Autumn of Chinese PoliticsCommentary
China’s political future will be shaped between now and next October. As the Communist Party enters its intense “campaign season” to prepare for a major political transition in 2027, reading Beijing's actions and responses may become more difficult as domestic politics weigh on its behavior more than usual.
Damien Ma
- Can China Turn Its Small Modular Reactor Ambitions into Commercial Reality?Article
China has showcased its engineering prowess with small modular reactor demonstration projects. But turning these technological achievements into commercial success will be a greater challenge.
Tong Zhao
- Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its AlliesPaper
The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.
Tong Zhao
- Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of StabilityCommentary
But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.
Damien Ma
- China Sells Stability Amid American VolatilityCommentary
U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.
Chong Ja Ian