Source: CNN

For the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the narrative in the region is no longer that Arabs are being inspired by Iranian theocracy, but that Iranians are being inspired by Arab, specifically Egyptian, democracy, explained Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour on CNN. However, “Egypt and Iran have some significant differences”, noted Sadjadpour. In particular, Iran has a great deal of oil wealth that it can use to financially co-opt its disaffected citizens and to arm its shock troops. Further, suggests Sadjadpour, “anti-American regimes like Iran are less vulnerable than U.S.-allied autocracies because Iran doesn’t have to worry about a reaching a threshold of violence where the U.S. will pull its funding.”

In the immediate aftermath of the contested June 2009 presidential elections, protesters were calling for transparent elections. Two years later, inspired by the revolutions in the Middle East, some of the opposition is calling for the downfall of the regime. While many of the leaders of the opposition, members of the old guard, are simply calling for reforms to the system, Sadjadpour explained that the youth are calling for structural changes.  Moving forward, the opposition must coalesce around a common goal. In the short term, “it is going to be very difficult to rid Iran of the regime because the regime has a lot to work with in terms of oil wealth and shock troops,” said Sadjadpour. Yet he argued that the future does not augur well for Islamic Republic as change continues to sweep the region.