WASHINGTON, Oct 30—The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces a critical test this November when it will issue its latest report on Iran’s nuclear activities. Since 2003, the IAEA has been unable to conclude that Iran does not have undeclared nuclear materials and activities. A condemning report by the IAEA, addressing the elements of Iran’s nuclear program that seem intended for military, rather than civilian purposes, could induce UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and prompt Iran to end all cooperation with the IAEA. Yet a falsely reassuring report by the IAEA could seriously damage the credibility of the nonproliferation regime, argues Pierre Goldschmidt, former deputy director general of the IAEA and a visiting scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a speech today at Harvard University.

Arguing that Iran has shown no inclination to convince the world that it is not seeking nuclear weapons, Goldschmidt says that the Iranians have most likely made a cost-benefit analysis of the situation, concluding that time is on their side and that Russia and China will oppose severe sanctions by the UNSC. He suggests an alternative approach would be a two-month grace period protecting Iran in case it makes new revelations on its nuclear program. He also outlines other key factors that could prompt Iran to shift its stance:

• There is growing dissatisfaction among the Iranian people, sparked by the rise in unemployment and declines in the standard of living at a time when oil revenues are at an all-time high. This is largely attributable to Iran’s defiance of IAEA and UNSC resolutions. The political and economic consequences of sanctions may fuel public protest against the Iranian government’s intransigence.
• Progressively increased sanctions unanimously adopted by the UNSC can play a significant role over time. The UNSC should adopt a resolution to suspend all military cooperation with Iran, as it did in 2006 with North Korea, which would not adversely affect the Iranian people, but could encourage Iran’s leadership to comply with UNSC requests rather than opt for confrontation.
• Potential allies in the key non-aligned countries, such as South Africa, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others in the Arab world could distance themselves from Iran and have a major impact on Iran’s leadership.

“The Agency, recipient of the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize, has a well deserved reputation of objectivity and sound technical judgment. It cannot let itself be perceived as being manipulated by Iran to help buy time or as providing an unwarranted excessively positive picture of the situation in Iran, thereby raising the suspicion that its objective might be to make it more difficult for the UNSC to adopt any new resolution sanctioning Iran. After five years of unsuccessful efforts by the Agency to ‘close the Iranian file,’ there is no room for complacency, only for undisputable objectivity and clarity in reporting facts and findings in sufficient detail,” concludes Goldschmidt.

###

NOTES

• To read Goldschmidt’s speech, please click here
  Direct link to the PDF: www.carnegieendowment.org/files/lamontlecture_goldschmidt.pdf
  
  
• Pierre Goldschmidt is a member of the board of directors for the Association Vinçotte Nuclear, a nonprofit, authorized inspection organization charged with verifying compliance of nuclear power plants with Belgian safety regulations. Goldschmidt is involved internationally in long term energy supply, environmental protection, nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, and security. His recent publication, Priority Steps to Strengthen the Nonproliferation Regime, argues that the international community must reject the passive notion that more countries are unavoidably destined to acquire nuclear weapons, and instead must implement further measures to dissuade and deter non-nuclear weapon states from seeking such weapons.
  
  
• The Carnegie Nonproliferation Program is an internationally recognized source of knowledge and policy thinking on efforts to curb the spread and use of nuclear weapons. Carnegie’s analysis consistently stays at the forefront of proliferation developments and nonproliferation policy debates. In Washington, Moscow, Brussels, New Delhi, and increasingly in Beijing, the program hosts public and private seminars, speeches, and workshops, where leading officials and experts seek to overcome obstacles to reduce the danger of nuclear war. The program works publicly and behind-the scenes in active Track II diplomacy to promote solutions to challenges such as the Iranian nuclear case, U.S.-Russian threat reduction cooperation, new approaches to managing the nuclear fuel cycle, and the future of nuclear disarmament.
  
  
• Every eighteen months, Carnegie convenes the Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, widely considered to be the premiere event in its field, attracting over 800 government officials, policy and technical experts, academics, and journalists from around the world. In August, Carnegie published the Top Ten Results from the 2007 Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, which identifies top solutions to current and future nonproliferation challenges.
  
  
• Carnegie Europe opened in Brussels in spring 2007 to provide a multilateral policy forum for senior policy makers in European Union institutions and national governments. It also reaches out to leading journalists, think-tanks, and scholars across Europe. Carnegie Europe leverages Carnegie’s global work in Washington, D.C., and that of its other main regional research centers in Moscow, Beirut, and Beijing. Programs range from policy seminars and consultations in Europe, through to establishing local partnerships and integrating a stronger European component into Carnegie’s global activities.
  
  
• Press Contact:
  
  Trent Perrotto
  ph: 202/939-2372
  tperrotto@ceip.org