The following is taken from Rose Gottemoeller's paper, "The Russian Elite and Iraq: An Unexpected Picture," in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's August 2002 report, "Iraq: A New Approach." This excerpt is particularly relevant in light of the talks held today at the White House between the Bush administration and the Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers on the situation in Iraq.

The lack of a Russian consensus on its interests in Iraq does not imply ready Russian support for U.S. military action. On the contrary, Russian experts stress both that the United States will have to go it alone and that U.S. forces should not expect a repeat of the easy time that they had in toppling the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. As Alexei Arbatov commented in an interview in May, "Using aerial bombardment alone in Iraq will not do the trick; the United States will need a ground operation. In Afghanistan, the ground operation was carried forward by the Northern Alliance, under the leadership of Russia and the USA. But in Iraq, no one will want to do this dirty work for the Americans."

One commentator went so far as to say that Iraq for the United States will be as Carthage was for Rome: an eventual victory but won only after a long war that significantly taxed the Roman Empire. This image of an imperial power about to enter a quagmire is one that a number of Russians seem to relish, perhaps based on their own experience in Chechnya. However, they do not specifically compare Iraq to Chechnya. Instead, they warn against "naïve" hopes, such as counting on "marionette-style fighters from the ranks of (Iraqi) dissidents."

Thus, the answer to the question of whether Russia would support a U.S. invasion of Iraq with its own military forces is a clear no: As far as Russia is concerned, the United States will have to go it alone. The more general question of whether Russia would go along with such an invasion has a more nuanced answer, however. Russian elites seem ready to stand aside and let the Americans go forward if they are determined to do so. As Georgy Mirsky put it, "Russia will not hinder the Americans."

In some sense, Russian commentators may be preparing their public for what they believe will be the likely response from the Kremlin: Putin's acquiescence to a U.S. invasion of Iraq, similar to the case of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

A number of Russian commentators maintain the view that political tools for addressing the crisis have not been exhausted. They note that Iraq has not so far refused dialogue with the United Nations. They also note that as soon as others walk away from diplomatic efforts, the Iraqi leader will be tempted to preempt the situation. This attitude indicates that Russia, if it should acquiesce to U.S. military action, will continue to press on the diplomatic front as well.

Even more naturally, the Russian elites would be positively disposed to a reasonable alternative to a full-scale U.S. invasion. The scope and definition of that alternative is not clear from the Russian media, except to emphasize a strong commitment to continued engagement at the negotiating table. However, the current Russian stance at the United Nations suggests that a use of force to support inspections might not be out of the question, if only to maintain the continued viability and legitimacy of the UN system.

Moreover, although they do not occupy the first rank of argument, the interests of Russian companies would not be disregarded. Russian media commentators convey the sense that they are simply waiting for the giant to falter. This would not be because they expect to gain in the old Cold War zero-sum sense, but because they believe it will create the conditions for a new political process. In this, Russian experts would hope to take a decisive role, especially to support the interests of Russian companies.

To sum up, Russian elites will not be tied fast by Russian oil companies in regard to defining Russian national interests in Iraq. Likewise, they will not be driven to precipitate steps against the United States, in the United Nations or elsewhere. At the same time, they will likely urge, and strongly so, the continuation of a diplomatic-political process to resolve the crisis. This could include the option of armed support to inspections.

For Rose Gottemoeller's complete paper,"The Russian Elite and Iraq: An Unexpected Picture," Click here

Additional Resource:

• "Iraq: A New Approach," Special Carnegie Report, 5 September 2002
• Iraq Chapter from Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction
• More on Deadly Arsenals
• Iraq Country Resource Page
• Hearings on Iraq
  
  

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