The World in Focus: Uncertainty and the Global Outlook for 2024

Wed. January 31st, 2024
Live on Facebook and Youtube

In order to explore the complexities of our rapidly changing world, the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center will examine pressing global issues through four engaging panel discussions in a one-day event, under the collective title, “The World in Focus: Uncertainty and the Global Outlook for 2024.” 

Against the backdrop of a shifting global order, economic experts will discuss the challenges posed by geopolitical uncertainties, conflicts, and the quest for diversified economic partnerships. The panels will also delve into the complex dimensions of the nuclear threat in a multipolar world, addressing concerns surrounding proliferation and regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed states.

Moreover, our panelists will also explore the rise of populism globally, examining its drivers, implications, and impacts on governance, social dynamics, and international relations. By fostering nuanced discussions on these interconnected issues, we hope the audience will come away with a deeper understanding of the multifaceted challenges shaping the global outlook for 2024 and beyond.

Wed. January 31st, 2024 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM EST

Great Powers and the Contours of International Relations

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM EET for this discussion with Tong Zhao, Temur Umarov, and Rosa Balfour, Ashley J. Tellis, and Maha Yahya.

In today's rapidly evolving international landscape, the world is witnessing a dynamic and intense global competition among "great powers." This competition is marked by strategic maneuvering, technological advancements, economic prowess, and military assertiveness. The United States and China find themselves locked in a contest for influence and access in strategic regions such as the Middle East, where both nations seek to secure vital energy resources and foster economic partnerships. Moreover, Russia and China are forging closer ties, cooperating in areas such as trade, technology, and security, and challenging traditional geopolitical alignments. Against this backdrop, rising tensions over Taiwan, as China's growing military capabilities and assertiveness raise concerns about the possibility of an invasion, leading to regional instability. Over the past three months, the war in Gaza has influenced global power dynamics, reshaping strategies and calculations among the great powers. As these powers pursue their interests, their interactions and rivalries will shape the contours of international relations, necessitating careful diplomacy and prudent strategies to navigate the evolving global order.

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM EET for this discussion with Tong Zhao, Temur Umarov, and Rosa Balfour, Ashley Tellis and Maha Yahya .The discussion will be held in English live on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at Najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org

Rosa Balfour

Director, Carnegie Europe

Maha Yahya

Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Ashley J. Tellis

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs

Temur Umarov

Temur Umarov

Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Tong Zhao

Senior Fellow, Carnegie China, Nuclear Policy Program

Wed. January 31st, 2024 5:15 PM - 6:15 PM EST

Prosperity or Precarity? The Global Economic Outlook

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 5:15 PM to 6:15 PM EET for this discussion with Yukon Huang, Jihad Azour, Marwan Muasher, Haneen El Sayed and Nur Arafeh.

As the IMF predicts a global growth decline in 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022, nations around the world continue to grapple with financial stability amid increasing challenges. Geopolitical and security concerns, driven by conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, are reshaping the global political economy. Governments are diversifying partnerships outside the “Global North” for prosperity, and BRICS nations are exploring economic collaboration and alternatives to the U.S. dollar. The “Global South” is innovating strategies such as debt restructuring to address debt unsustainability. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Yemeni Houthis' obstruction of passage into the Red Sea, and U.S. and U.K. strikes on Yemen in reprisal, are escalating global costs and raising concerns about the outbreak of an intense regional conflict with far-reaching consequences. Join our panel of experts to examine these issues and more.

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 5:15 PM to 6:15 PM EET for this discussion with Yukon Huang, Jihad Azour, Marwan Muasher, Haneen El Sayed, and Nur Arafeh. The discussion will be held in English live on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at Najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org

Jihad Azour

IMF

Nur Arafeh

Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Yukon Huang

Senior Fellow, Asia Program

Marwan Muasher

Vice President for Studies

Haneen Sayed

Senior Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Wed. January 31st, 2024 6:30 PM - 7:30 PM EST

Back to the Bomb? The Nuclear Threat in a Multipolar World

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 6:30 PM to 7:30 PM EET for this discussion with Mark Hibbs, Rose Gottemoeller, Nicole Grajewski and Mohanad Hage Ali.

As the global geopolitical landscape undergoes significant transformations, the nuclear threat has taken on new dimensions. The United States, which for three decades has stood as the sole global superpower, is now facing the rise of formidable contenders such as China. Amid this shifting balance of power, the threat of nuclear proliferation and the potential for regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed states have escalated. Moreover, in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s hints that he might resort to his nation’s nuclear arsenal have contributed to heightened concerns over nuclear stability. In the Middle East, Iran's nuclear ambitions have raised concerns among nations such as Saudi Arabia, potentially prompting a destabilizing regional arms race as countries seek to counterbalance Iran's nuclear capabilities. As such, the international community faces a delicate balancing act in managing and mitigating the nuclear threat in a multipolar world, requiring renewed diplomatic efforts, arms control agreements, and a commitment to preventing nuclear escalation.

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 6:30 PM to 7:30 PM EET for this discussion with Mark Hibbs, Rose Gottemoeller, Nicole Grajewski, and Mohanad Hage Ali. The discussion will be held in English live on YouTube and Facebook.

For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at Najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org

Mark Hibbs

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Mohanad Hage Ali

Deputy Director for Research, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Rose Gottemoeller

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Nicole Grajewski Profile Picture

Nicole Grajewski

Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Wed. January 31st, 2024 7:45 PM - 8:45 PM EST

Why is Populism So Popular?

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 7:45 PM to 8:45 PM EET for this discussion with Richard Youngs, Rachel Kleinfield, Oliver Stuenkel, Hamza Meddeb, and Sarah Yerkes.

The global surge of populism has been characterized by leaders and parties gaining traction by emphasizing anti-elite sentiment, stricter migration controls, and the scapegoating of minority groups or individuals as being responsible for societal problems. This movement signals a profound shift in politics, demanding analysis of its drivers and implications. Moreover, recognition that it is necessary to deconstruct populist discourse is growing. It involves understanding factors justifying global populism and individuals seeking alternatives to the Western-capitalist model, often stemming from disenfranchisement and a desire for equitable distribution. Populism isn't confined to specific boundaries; it resonates even in complex contexts such as Israel/Palestine, intertwining with conflict, national identities, and regional dynamics. In the Middle East, several nations exemplify populism within the domains of governance, social dynamics, and international relations. The panel aims to explore populism's core elements and ramifications, fostering a comprehensive understanding of its complexities within contemporary global politics. 

Join us on Wednesday, January 31 from 7:45 PM to 8:45 PM EET for this discussion with Richard Youngs, Rachel Kleinfield, Oliver Stuenkel, Hamza Meddeb, and Sarah Yerkes. The discussion will be held in English live on YouTube and Facebook

For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at Najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org

Hamza Meddeb

Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Rachel Kleinfeld

Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Oliver Stuenkel

Visiting Scholar, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Sarah Yerkes

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Richard Youngs

Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
event speakers

Nur Arafeh

Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Nur Arafeh is a fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where she is co-leading the program on the political economy of the MENA region. Her research focuses on business-state relations, food insecurity, inequality, peacebuilding strategies, the development-security nexus and Palestinian-Israeli affairs.

Jihad Azour

IMF

Mr. Jihad Azour is the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund where he oversees the Fund’s work in the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia and Caucasus.

Rosa Balfour

Director, Carnegie Europe

Rosa Balfour is director of Carnegie Europe. Her fields of expertise include European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy. Her current research focuses on the relationship between domestic politics and Europe’s global role. Previously, Balfour was a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She was also director of the Europe in the World program at the European Policy Centre in Brussels and has worked as a researcher in Rome and London. She holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Nicole Grajewski Profile Picture

Nicole Grajewski

Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Nicole Grajewski is a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Rose Gottemoeller

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Rose Gottemoeller is a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. She also serves as lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Mohanad Hage Ali

Deputy Director for Research, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Mohanad Hage Ali is the deputy director for research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

Rachel Kleinfeld

Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Rachel Kleinfeld is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on issues of rule of law, security, and governance in democracies experiencing polarization, violence, and other governance problems.

Mark Hibbs

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Hibbs is a Germany-based nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. His areas of expertise are nuclear verification and safeguards, multilateral nuclear trade policy, international nuclear cooperation, and nonproliferation arrangements.

Hamza Meddeb

Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Hamza Meddeb is a research fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, where he co-leads the Political Economy Program

Yukon Huang

Senior Fellow, Asia Program

Huang is a senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program where his research focuses on China’s economy and its regional and global impact.

Marwan Muasher

Vice President for Studies

Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East. Muasher served as foreign minister (2002–2004) and deputy prime minister (2004–2005) of Jordan, and his career has spanned the areas of diplomacy, development, civil society, and communications.

Haneen Sayed

Senior Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Haneen Sayed is a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

Oliver Stuenkel

Visiting Scholar, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Oliver Stuenkel is an associate professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo, Brazil. He is also a visiting scholar affiliated with the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Ashley J. Tellis

Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs

Ashley J. Tellis is the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

Temur Umarov

Temur Umarov

Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Temur Umarov is an expert on China and Central Asia, and a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Maha Yahya

Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Yahya is director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings.

Sarah Yerkes

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Sarah Yerkes is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.

Richard Youngs

Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Youngs is a senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, based at Carnegie Europe. He works on EU foreign policy and on issues of international democracy.

Tong Zhao

Senior Fellow, Carnegie China, Nuclear Policy Program

Tong Zhao is a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China, Carnegie’s East Asia-based research center on contemporary China. Formerly based in Beijing, he now conducts research in Washington on strategic security issues.