Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran

{
  "authors": [
    "Shahram Chubin"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Iranian Proliferation",
    "Transatlantic Cooperation",
    "Europe’s Southern Neighborhood"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "Middle East",
    "Iran",
    "Western Europe",
    "Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}

Other

Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran

With the international spotlight focused on Iran and its nuclear agenda, Tehran has been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions.

By Shahram Chubin

Published on Feb 11, 2013

Source: Proliferation Papers No. 45

In the long standoff regarding its nuclear ambition, Iran has cultivated ambiguity and been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions, complicating Western efforts to understand, let alone constrain, Tehran’s endeavors. While many analyses have focused on how to prevent or contain a potential nuclear-armed Iran, the posture Iran would adopt once it has developed its nuclear weapons remains elusive. This paper highlights that while opting for command-and-control (C2) arrangements, Iran would have to reconcile two contrasting imperatives: first, to disperse assets and decentralize C2 to minimize the risks and potential damages of a disabling strike, which has been seen as a real – even imminent – threat in recent years. A contrasting concern emerged as the Iranian Revolutionay Guards’ Corps became a key formulator and executor of Tehran’s security policy: how to guard against the risk of unauthorized use of major weapons systems? Among the factors that could influence Iran’s choices in terms of C2 arrangements, this paper focuses on Tehran’s national security experience, the lessons it may have derived from it, as well as from the experience of other countries.

This piece originally appeared in IFRI's Proliferation Papers.

About the Author

Shahram Chubin

Former Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Chubin, who is based in Geneva, focuses his research on nonproliferation, terrorism, and Middle East security issues. He was director of studies at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland, from 1996 to 2009.

Recent Work

In The Media
Iran and the P5+1 in Moscow: Time is Running Out (Again)
- Shahram Chubin
In The Media
The Revolution in Cairo is a Serious Warning for the Mullahs
- Shahram Chubin

Security Nuclear Policy North America United States Middle East Iran Western Europe Europe

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary
AI in Outer Space: Opportunities, Risks, and the Governance Gap
How is AI reshaping space security, creating governance challenges, and where does international diplomacy stand today?
Tejas Bharadwaj, Almudena Azcárate Ortega
Paper
Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China
After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.
Saheb Singh Chadha
Commentary
India’s Semiconductor Ecosystem Is Maturing—and ASML Is Taking Notice
The ASML MoU with Tata Electronics is an indicator of how far the Indian semiconductor ecosystem has come. This ecosystem has been years in the making and represents real commercial logic.
Konark Bhandari
Commentary
The Unresolved Challenges in U.S.–India Semiconductor Cooperation
The U.S.–India semiconductor cooperation story is well-stocked with top-level strategic intent. What remains unresolved, however, are some underlying challenges that will determine whether the cooperation actually functions. Three such friction points stand out.
Shruti Mittal
Commentary
Emerging From the “Zombie State” of Trade Agreements: The India-EU FTA
The India–EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is shaping up to be one of the most consequential trade negotiations, both economically and strategically. But, what’s in the agreement, what’s missing, and what will determine its success in the years ahead
Vrinda Sahai, Nicolas Köhler-Suzuki

More Work from Carnegie India

Commentary

AI in Outer Space: Opportunities, Risks, and the Governance Gap

How is AI reshaping space security, creating governance challenges, and where does international diplomacy stand today?

Tejas Bharadwaj, Almudena Azcárate Ortega

Paper

Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China

After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.

Saheb Singh Chadha

Commentary

India’s Semiconductor Ecosystem Is Maturing—and ASML Is Taking Notice

The ASML MoU with Tata Electronics is an indicator of how far the Indian semiconductor ecosystem has come. This ecosystem has been years in the making and represents real commercial logic.

Konark Bhandari

Commentary

The Unresolved Challenges in U.S.–India Semiconductor Cooperation

The U.S.–India semiconductor cooperation story is well-stocked with top-level strategic intent. What remains unresolved, however, are some underlying challenges that will determine whether the cooperation actually functions. Three such friction points stand out.

Shruti Mittal

Commentary

Emerging From the “Zombie State” of Trade Agreements: The India-EU FTA

The India–EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is shaping up to be one of the most consequential trade negotiations, both economically and strategically. But, what’s in the agreement, what’s missing, and what will determine its success in the years ahead

Vrinda Sahai, Nicolas Köhler-Suzuki