Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"Western Europe",
"Germany"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}Source: Getty
Germany—the United States: Outliving the Special Relationship
German protestations over recent allegations of U.S. espionage point to the fact that the Federal Republic is rediscovering its dignity. As Germany emerges as one of Eurasia's major powers, a sense of “normalcy” will return to relationships that used to be special, the United States being no exception.
There is something touching about Germany's outrage at the United States spying in the country. Allies do spy on each other, but they are supposed to do so more carefully. From its very foundation in 1949, the Federal Republic has been watched not only by the Soviet Union, and then Russia, but by the Western powers as well. The NSA scandal, touched off by Edward Snowden's revelations last year, should have dispelled the last remaining illusions. Yet, the most recent charges against an agent within the Bundesnachrichtendienst, the German intelligence service, allegedly spying for the United States, has brought matters to a head again.
Yet, the fact that the German protestations become ever louder and ever angrier may point also to something else. Germany is rediscovering its dignity. Just thirty years ago, the phrase "German national interest" was taboo. Just fifteen years ago, an open disagreement on a major international issue between Germany and the United States was unthinkable. Just five years ago, Germany abstaining at the UN Security Council alongside Russia and China was hard to imagine. Things keep changing, and the old relationships like the Franco-German tandem or the Russo-German partnership are being recast.
Eventually, this will also be true of the U.S.-German alliance. Spying scandals accelerate the process somewhat, and give it a public spin, but they do not drive it. Slowly, Germany is emerging as the sole leader of the EU, and as a major power in Eurasia, alongside China and Russia. One result of this will be providing a sense of "normalcy" to Berlin's formerly special relationships, which used to extend privileges to its allies. The United States will be no exception.
About the Author
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet SpaceCommentary
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie India
- What Could a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement Do for U.S.-India Ties?Article
India and the United States are close to concluding a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement (RDPA) that will allow firms from the two countries to sell to each other’s defense establishments more easily. While this may not remedy the specific grievances both sides may have regarding larger bilateral issues, an RDPA could restore some momentum, following the trade deal announcement.
Konark Bhandari
- India Signs the Pax Silica—A Counter to Pax Sinica?Commentary
On the last day of the India AI Impact Summit, India signed Pax Silica, a U.S.-led declaration seemingly focused on semiconductors. While India’s accession to the same was not entirely unforeseen, becoming a signatory nation this quickly was not on the cards either.
Konark Bhandari
- The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil ImportsCommentary
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
- Military Lessons from Operation SindoorArticle
The India-Pakistan conflict that played out between May 6 and May 10, 2025, offers several military lessons. This article presents key takeaways from Operation Sindoor and breaks down how India’s preparations shaped the outcome and what more is needed to strengthen future readiness.
Dinakar Peri
- India and the Sovereignty Principle: The Disaggregation ImperativeBook
This book offers a comprehensive analysis of India's evolving relationship with sovereignty in a complex global order. Moving beyond conventional narratives, it examines how the sovereignty principle shapes India's behavior across four critical domains—from traditional military power to contemporary data governance.
Rudra Chaudhuri, Nabarun Roy