Commentary
Peter Kellner
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Source: Getty
In The Media
Has “Leave” Really Just Shot to a Ten Point Lead? Don’t Be So Sure
It would be wise to view a new poll on Brexit with caution.
By Peter Kellner
Published on Jan 8, 2018
Source: Prospect Magazine
Just before Christmas, I warned Remainers not to get too excited about a poll showing a ten point lead for staying in the EU. The opposite now applies. In his latest column for the Sunday Times, Dominic Lawson reports a YouGov poll showing a Leave lead widening from two to nine points in the past three months. Once again, I doubt whether there has been any real shift in public opinion.
The poll Lawson cites was one of YouGov’s Eurotracker series. It is conducted monthly, but this particular question is asked less frequently. This is how it is worded:
At this point would you prefer that Britain stays in or leaves the European Union?
Read Full Text
About the Author
Peter Kellner
Former Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Kellner was a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focused on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.
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Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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