The Limits of Endless Revolution

{
  "authors": [
    "Alexey Malashenko"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [
    "Eurasia in Transition"
  ],
  "regions": [
    "Egypt",
    "Gulf",
    "Levant",
    "Maghreb",
    "North Africa",
    "Libya",
    "Tunisia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

Other

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

The Limits of Endless Revolution

The unrest that has swept through Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya resulted in large part from the inability or unwillingness of the ruling regimes to make significant improvements in the lives of the general public. The departure of the heads of these regimes, however, does not necessarily signal an end to the revolutionary process.

By Alexey Malashenko

Published on Mar 9, 2011

Key Conclusions:

Every revolution has its own peculiar causes. We should not exaggerate the possibility that the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya will set off a chain reaction throughout the Arab world or the wider Muslim world.
The activeness many expected to see from Islamic radicals has not been forthcoming so far.
The Arab governments in Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen and Oman have correctly judged the situation and agreed to concessions and even dialogue with the opposition as a way of lowering tensions.
We should not exaggerate the influence of these recent events on the Middle East conflict, because no matter what kind of government emerges in Egypt, it will concentrate its attention above all on domestic issues.
Authoritarian regimes in Central Asia are using the events in North Africa, especially in Libya, as an added argument in favor of a firm hand guaranteeing stable government in their countries.

About the Author

Alexey Malashenko

Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program

Malashenko is a former chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program.

Recent Work

Commentary
What Will Uzbekistan’s New President Do?
- Alexey Malashenko
Commentary
Preserving the Calm in Russia’s Muslim Community
- Alexey Malashenko

Political Reform Egypt Gulf Levant Maghreb North Africa Libya Tunisia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Commentary
Diwan
Axis of Resistance or Suicide?
As Iran defends its interests in the region and its regime’s survival, it may push Hezbollah into the abyss.
Michael Young
Commentary
Diwan
When Football Is More Than Football
The recent African Cup of Nations tournament in Morocco touched on issues that largely transcended the sport.
Issam Kayssi, Yasmine Zarhloule
Article
Can the Gulf Cooperation Council Transcend Its Divisions?
Without structural reform, the organization, which is racked by internal rivalries, risks sliding into irrelevance.
Hesham Alghannam
Commentary
Diwan
Kurdish Nationalism Rears its Head in Syria
A recent offensive by Damascus and the Kurds’ abandonment by Arab allies have left a sense of betrayal.
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Commentary
Diwan
All Eyes on Southern Syria
The government’s gains in the northwest will have an echo nationally, but will they alter Israeli calculations?
Armenak Tokmajyan

The Limits of Endless Revolution