Report
- +4
Ms. Sandra Polaski, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreir, Janine Berg, …
Report
Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries
This report presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members.
Published on Mar 13, 2006
Source: Carnegie Endowment
Meeting in Hong Kong in December 2005, trade ministers from World Trade Organization member countries were unable to bridge major disagreements in virtually every area of the Doha Round negotiations. As the global trade regime has expanded to include most developing countries, the range of divergent priorities within the negotiations has widened. What would it take to produce a global trade agreement that addresses the interests of developing countries and holds the potential to lift their incomes, while at the same time offering advantages for developed countries?
Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries presents a new, path breaking model of global trade as a tool to analyze the potential impacts of the negotiations and underlying economic interests of the WTO’s diverse members. This new Carnegie model makes several critical innovations—notably, modeling unemployment in developing countries and separating agricultural labor markets from urban unskilled labor markets. The result is a thorough, detailed, and more accurate analysis of the impact of trade policies on both developing and developed countries.
The report’s major findings are striking: any of the plausible trade scenarios will produce only modest gains for the world; agricultural trade is not a panacea for most poor countries; the poorest countries may actually lose from any agreement; and additional special measures will be needed to ensure that the least developed countries succeed. The full document includes technical specifications of the Carnegie model, simulation results, a wealth of regional and national data, over 50 full color charts and graphs, policy implications and recommendations.
What people are saying about Winners and Losers: Policymakers and journalists have commented on the results of the Carnegie model. Click on the links below to read their responses:
- Editorial, New York Times: "What Development Round?"
- Bruce Stokes, Columnist, The National Journal: "Doha's Winners and Losers"
- John Judis, Senior Editor, The New Republic: "The WTO Miscalculates: Trade Imbalance"
- Commissioner Peter Mandelson, European Union Trade Commissioner: Speech, March 21, 2006
- European Commission press release: "EU welcomes Carnegie research on development in Doha talk"
- Ambassador Robert Portman, United States Trade Representative: USTR Press Release
Click on one of the links above for the full text of this Carnegie report.
Sandra Polaski is senior associate and director of the Trade, Equity, and Development Project at the Carnegie Endowment. She served as the U.S. secretary of state's special representative for international labor affairs from 1999 to 2002, playing a leading role in the development of U.S. government policy on international labor and trade issues.
About the Author
Ms. Sandra Polaski
Former Senior Associate, Director, Trade, Equity and Development Program
Until April 2002, Polaski served as the U.S. Secretary of State’s Special Representative for International Labor Affairs, the senior State Department official dealing with such matters.
- Brazil in the Global Economy: Measuring the Gains From Trade
- One Cheer for Global Trade TalksArticle
Ms. Sandra Polaski
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
- The Twilight of Oil in an Age of Uncertainty: From a Vicious to a Virtuous CyclePaper
The global hydrocarbon order is changing. Economic diversification and developing productive economies have become essential for Middle Eastern and North African states, requiring them to address social and political challenges and rethink domestic, regional, and global settlements.
- +1
Nur Arafeh, Ishac Diwan, Hamza Meddeb, …
- An American Muslim Exception?Commentary
In an interview, Rozina Ali discusses her new book on the rise and manifestations of Islamophobia in the United States.
Michael Young
- The Israel Lobby, U.S. Foreign Policy, and Domestic LibertiesCommentary
In an interview, Ian Lustick and Eli Clifton discuss their new book on why a prominent ally has so much influence in America.
Michael Young
- Three Ruptures and the End of Pax Americana in the Middle EastCommentary
As the U.S. stumbles in its war with Iran, we are likely to see an acceleration of its disengagement from the region.
Michael Young
- Less of America is MoreCommentary
Middle Eastern states should welcome an accelerated U.S. disengagement from their region.
Michael Young
