Because strategic, economic, and ideological perceptions of China contain multiple, sometimes contradictory facets in Southeast Asia, receptions of and responses to Beijing diverge across and within state lines.
Neither Duterte’s pivot to China policy nor Marcos’s transparency initiative is changing China’s behavior.
Malaysia’s actions indicate that it continues to pursue an inclusive and prudent “equidistance” policy.
Beijing could seek to limit the spillover from a Taiwan conflict into the South China Sea and offer to assist in evacuation operations for Southeast Asian citizens.
Taiwan faces a more forceful PRC and a need to further consolidate its democracy. These will be the true tests of Lai Ching-te’s political acumen and that of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) team around him.
In the current conflict with the Philippines, Beijing’s strategy appears to be maximally leveraging gray zone tactics to exhaust the survival of the Filipino vessel on the Second Thomas Shoal.
Over the past three years, Southeast Asia has witnessed a series of important leadership transitions. How will these new leaders approach China and how will they differ from their predecessors?
