Russian oil production is remarkably resilient to significant price changes, but significant political headwinds may lead to a drop regardless of economics.
Sergey Vakulenko
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Anders Aslund’s policy brief, “Putin’s Decline and America’s Response,” has provoked a fiery debate over the nature and future of the Putin regime. Some commentators insist that Russia’s real authoritarian turn took place under Yeltsin, while others agree, with Aslund, that Putin has tightened the screws. Some believe Putin’s government has been ineffective in dealing with crises like Beslan, while others call such criticism misguided and unfair.
Few take direct issue with Aslund’s most surprising claim: that Putin may not survive in power until the 2008 elections. But the experts vary widely in their assessment of which social forces could spark an anti-Putin movement.
This document includes postings that originally appeared on Johnson’s Russia List, including Aslund’s response to criticism of his work.
Click on the link to the right for the full text.
Former Senior Associate, Director, Russian and Eurasian Program
Oliver Bronsen
Susan J. Cavan
Boston University
William Dunkerley
William Dunkerley Publishing Consultants
Julian Evans
David Gillespie
Roger Hamburg
Edward Lozansky
Jeremy Putley
Ira Strauss
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
Russian oil production is remarkably resilient to significant price changes, but significant political headwinds may lead to a drop regardless of economics.
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