Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette

{
  "authors": [
    "Lilia Shevtsova"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Caucasus",
    "Russia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette

Russia’s actions in the Russia-Georgia conflict proved that for the Kremlin, foreign policy is the crucial means of carrying out its domestic agenda. For the political elite, this agenda maintains the status quo. However, such a policy is unlikely to stand. Should Russia be unable to start to reform it risks collapse and repeating the end of the Soviet Union.

By Lilia Shevtsova

Published on Oct 8, 2008

Source: The World Today

The Russia-Georgia conflict has had a grave consequence for Russia- it has ended the Perestroika experiment that was begun by former President Mikhail Gorbachev. While the war had many different roots, one important factor responsible for this event is the position of the Russian ruling class. The conflict is a direct result of this group wanting to return to a traditional state in which it cannot maintain itself without spheres of influence, macho posturing and the search for an enemy. The state, based on highly centralized and personified power with strong elements of coercion, can exist only as a besieged fortress.

While this conflict has achieved this aim of maintaining a status quo and served as a unifying event for Russian citizens, it also faces a current challenge. The problem lies in Russia’s next step. Because the elite is a rentier class feeding off energy sales to the west, they have no interest in further escalation of the confrontation, as this would threaten their personal inclusion in the west and this is the new element in the old matrix. But, at the same time, they cannot abandon the anti-western means of consolidating Russia.

The country is approaching a new moment of truth when the elite discovers that the petro-economy no longer works and maintaining mobilisation at the enemy’s expense has become infinitely more difficult. It is unclear whether it will be able to start to reform the predatory state before it collapses and Russia repeats the end of the Soviet Union.

The article first appeared in The World Today magazine.

About the Author

Lilia Shevtsova

Former Senior Associate, Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program, Moscow Center

Shevtsova chaired the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, dividing her time between Carnegie’s offices in Washington, DC, and Moscow. She had been with Carnegie since 1995.

Recent Work

In The Media
Putin Has Fought His Way Into a Corner
- Lilia Shevtsova
Commentary
How Long Russians Will Believe in Fairy Tale?
- Lilia Shevtsova

Foreign Policy Caucasus Russia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary
Carnegie Politika
What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow.

Dimitar Bechev
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
James D.J. Brown
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Brussels and Baku Are Talking Again: What Next?
Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after several years in the deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fallout with France and several other EU member states.
Shujaat Ahmadzada
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone Attacks
The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments.
Alexandra Prokopenko
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for Time
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.
Sergejs Potapkins

Moscow's Domestic Policy: Russian Roulette

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?

Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow.

Dimitar Bechev

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?

The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.

James D.J. Brown

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Brussels and Baku Are Talking Again: What Next?

Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after several years in the deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fallout with France and several other EU member states.

Shujaat Ahmadzada

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone Attacks

The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments.

Alexandra Prokopenko

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for Time

Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.

Sergejs Potapkins