Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour
{
"authors": [
"Karim Sadjadpour"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}Source: Getty
Tensions Grow towards Iranian Government
While the Iranian regime succeeded in preventing large scale demonstrations on February 11 by shutting down many of the mechanisms used by the opposition to communicate and mobilize, the movement remains vibrant and robust.
Source: MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports
In spite of high expectations for opposition protests on the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the Iranian regime was able to prevent significant demonstrations. The protesters weren’t able to mobilize as they had previously, because the regime “turned the off switch on the internet” and “people were not able to communicate,” according to Karim Sadjadpour. Yet the regime’s attempt to shut down communications mechanisms and bus in counter-demonstrators were still not able to fully stop the opposition.
Some have labeled the small protests a sign of weakness in the ranks of the opposition. Sadjadpour explains that “counting heads is not a good barometer to gauge popular opinion. I am very confident that if the people were allowed to freely assemble we would see as many as 5 million people marching in Tehran and millions of others around the country.” In the initial weeks following the June 12 presidential election, many detractors of the opposition speculated the movement would fizzle out. Yet, despite the draconian measures of the regime, “the amount of people that under the green movement umbrella has only increased.”
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.
- Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?Q&A
- What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for NowQ&A
Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?Commentary
Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.
Balázs Jarábik
- Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?Commentary
Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.
Temur Umarov
- Parliamentary Elections in Occupied Ukraine Risk Backfiring for the KremlinCommentary
Despite unhappiness on the ground, Moscow is determined to use both carrot and stick to ensure there is record support for United Russia in occupied Ukraine.
Konstantin Skorkin
- Moldova’s Ruling Party PAS Must Graduate From Crisis Management to State GovernanceCommentary
Whether PAS can refocus on the unfinished business of state-building may ultimately prove more consequential for Moldova’s European future than the pace of its accession negotiations.
Balázs Jarábik
- Snubbed by United Russia as Elections Loom, Medvedev Looks Condemned to Eternal ObscurityCommentary
Medvedev’s defeat in the battle for the position of speaker appears to signal that the long process of his marginalization in Russian politics has passed the point of no return.
Andrey Pertsev