Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour
{
"authors": [
"Karim Sadjadpour"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}Source: Getty
Tensions Grow towards Iranian Government
While the Iranian regime succeeded in preventing large scale demonstrations on February 11 by shutting down many of the mechanisms used by the opposition to communicate and mobilize, the movement remains vibrant and robust.
Source: MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports
In spite of high expectations for opposition protests on the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the Iranian regime was able to prevent significant demonstrations. The protesters weren’t able to mobilize as they had previously, because the regime “turned the off switch on the internet” and “people were not able to communicate,” according to Karim Sadjadpour. Yet the regime’s attempt to shut down communications mechanisms and bus in counter-demonstrators were still not able to fully stop the opposition.
Some have labeled the small protests a sign of weakness in the ranks of the opposition. Sadjadpour explains that “counting heads is not a good barometer to gauge popular opinion. I am very confident that if the people were allowed to freely assemble we would see as many as 5 million people marching in Tehran and millions of others around the country.” In the initial weeks following the June 12 presidential election, many detractors of the opposition speculated the movement would fizzle out. Yet, despite the draconian measures of the regime, “the amount of people that under the green movement umbrella has only increased.”
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.
- Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?Q&A
- What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for NowQ&A
Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- As a Former Defense Minister Revolts in Ukraine, Is Zelensky’s System Fracturing?Commentary
The greater threat to Zelensky comes not from Fedorov alone, but from the convergence between the former defense minister’s political campaign and the anti-corruption investigations moving ever closer to the presidential administration.
Balázs Jarábik
- Fedorov’s Challenge to Zelensky Could Upend Ukrainian PoliticsCommentary
With his public call for new elections in Ukraine, ex-defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov has opened Pandora’s box.
Konstantin Skorkin
- Russia’s Rubber-Stamp Duma Elections Are Exposing Schisms in Putin's RegimeCommentary
In the discussions made possible by the State Duma election campaign, one question is being asked more and more loudly. “What next?”
Andrey Pertsev
- Russia Is Approaching a Political CrossroadsCommentary
Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.
Tatiana Stanovaya
- Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?Commentary
Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.
Balázs Jarábik