Paper
Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche, Amr Hamzawy
{
"authors": [
"Amr Hamzawy"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Tunisia",
"Maghreb"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Tunisia: Revolution Shows Hollowness of Arab System in Face of People Power
The recent revolution in Tunisia demonstrates the strong potential for citizens to rise up against authoritarianism and should serve as encouragement for Arab leaders to implement democratic change in their own nations.
By Amr Hamzawy
Published on Jan 19, 2011
Source: Los Angeles Times
First, Tunisian citizens have reminded Arabs of the main lesson of democratic transformations: Never underestimate the potential of peoples stifled under the yoke of authoritarianism. No matter how long the rule lasts or how tight its grip, citizens will instigate change through sudden revolutions and uprisings with the power to overcome corruption and bullets.
Second, Arabs have learned that authoritarian regimes lack public legitimacy, even if they create economic growth. Under Ben Ali, Tunisia had the highest growth rate among Arab countries outside the Gulf region; average annual individual income rose to $4,000, education became more widespread, and illiteracy rates were cut significantly.
Once this growth stagnated, however, many Tunisians became dissatisfied and had no place to turn to air their grievances. Their concerns about bread-and-butter issues quickly evolved into a broader demand for political liberties and democracy.
Third, authoritarian leaders are incapable of comprehending people’s suffering. Ben Ali and his ministers ignored rising unemployment rates of 40% among the educated youth and the increasing gap between rich and poor. When street protests turned into a larger uprising, Ben Ali’s regime responded with bullets and clubs. It was only in the final days of his 23-year rule that Ben Ali promised citizens economic and social development, government accountability and democratic change. He convinced no one.
Fourth, attempts to overthrow authoritarian rule can occur spontaneously and gain momentum quickly. Demonstrators in Tunisia went beyond raising slogans of democracy, human rights and good governance by forcing the regime to acknowledge their basic social and economic rights. While the cost of overcoming Ben Ali’s regime was high — some 70 Tunisians were killed before he left the country — the demonstrators’ speed and persistence, as well as their growing ability to use social media, were successful in facilitating change.
Finally, authoritarian rulers in the Arab world who form friendships with the West — as Tunisia did — should recall the Islamic revolution of Iran in 1979 that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Despite the West’s support for the authoritarian ruler, dictators can be removed from office and Western capitals are among the first to give up on them.
If Arab leaders of recalcitrant regimes heed these lessons, they should seek to implement democratic change in measured steps. Within a few weeks, they can impose a democratic form of government, despite the absence of viable opposition. That would benefit not only those in power, but their citizens as well.
About the Author
Amr Hamzawy
Director, Middle East Program
Amr Hamzawy is a senior fellow and the director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. His research and writings focus on Egypt’s and other middle powers’ involvement in regional security in the Middle East, particularly through collective diplomacy and multilateral conflict resolution
- Governance Compared: Autocracy and Democracy in Africa
- The Two Key Takeaways From Xi’s Egypt VisitCommentary
Amr Hamzawy
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Turkmenistan’s Ruling Duo Is Having a Family Feud. Will Their Regime Survive It?Commentary
Ex-president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov remains interested in politics, but his son Serdar, Turkmenistan’s current president, is becoming increasingly independent and willing to break with his father’s legacy. If their covert rivalry goes too far, both risk losing power.
Galiya Ibragimova
- How the Kremlin Achieved Its Latest Implausible Election ResultsCommentary
Sergei Kiriyenko used Russia’s parliamentary vote to further hone his strategy of corporate mobilization that is designed to maximize votes for United Russia.
Andrey Pertsev
- Will the Far Right Change Europe’s Russia Policy?Commentary
The European far right might fail to steer EU policy in the direction Russia wants, but they will create enough chaos inside Europe to benefit the Kremlin.
Dimitar Bechev
- Leaving Russian-Speakers Without Representation Is a Risk for LatviaCommentary
If the Russian-speaking community in Latvia cannot articulate their interests without being seen as disloyal, they could end up embracing a pro-Kremlin agenda.
Sergejs Potapkins
- Putin Has Been a Hindrance, Not a Help, to United Russia’s Election CampaignCommentary
Russia’s ruling party would have benefited from Putin appearing as its distant patron, but as an active frontman imposing his views on the public, he has done nothing but harm both the party’s election campaign and the ruling system overall.
Andrey Pertsev
