Article
Amr Hamzawy, Kathryn Selfe
{
"authors": [
"Amr Hamzawy"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Tunisia",
"Maghreb"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Tunisia: Revolution Shows Hollowness of Arab System in Face of People Power
The recent revolution in Tunisia demonstrates the strong potential for citizens to rise up against authoritarianism and should serve as encouragement for Arab leaders to implement democratic change in their own nations.
By Amr Hamzawy
Published on Jan 19, 2011
Source: Los Angeles Times
First, Tunisian citizens have reminded Arabs of the main lesson of democratic transformations: Never underestimate the potential of peoples stifled under the yoke of authoritarianism. No matter how long the rule lasts or how tight its grip, citizens will instigate change through sudden revolutions and uprisings with the power to overcome corruption and bullets.
Second, Arabs have learned that authoritarian regimes lack public legitimacy, even if they create economic growth. Under Ben Ali, Tunisia had the highest growth rate among Arab countries outside the Gulf region; average annual individual income rose to $4,000, education became more widespread, and illiteracy rates were cut significantly.
Once this growth stagnated, however, many Tunisians became dissatisfied and had no place to turn to air their grievances. Their concerns about bread-and-butter issues quickly evolved into a broader demand for political liberties and democracy.
Third, authoritarian leaders are incapable of comprehending people’s suffering. Ben Ali and his ministers ignored rising unemployment rates of 40% among the educated youth and the increasing gap between rich and poor. When street protests turned into a larger uprising, Ben Ali’s regime responded with bullets and clubs. It was only in the final days of his 23-year rule that Ben Ali promised citizens economic and social development, government accountability and democratic change. He convinced no one.
Fourth, attempts to overthrow authoritarian rule can occur spontaneously and gain momentum quickly. Demonstrators in Tunisia went beyond raising slogans of democracy, human rights and good governance by forcing the regime to acknowledge their basic social and economic rights. While the cost of overcoming Ben Ali’s regime was high — some 70 Tunisians were killed before he left the country — the demonstrators’ speed and persistence, as well as their growing ability to use social media, were successful in facilitating change.
Finally, authoritarian rulers in the Arab world who form friendships with the West — as Tunisia did — should recall the Islamic revolution of Iran in 1979 that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Despite the West’s support for the authoritarian ruler, dictators can be removed from office and Western capitals are among the first to give up on them.
If Arab leaders of recalcitrant regimes heed these lessons, they should seek to implement democratic change in measured steps. Within a few weeks, they can impose a democratic form of government, despite the absence of viable opposition. That would benefit not only those in power, but their citizens as well.
About the Author
Amr Hamzawy
Director, Middle East Program
Amr Hamzawy is a senior fellow and the director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. His research and writings focus on Egypt’s and other middle powers’ involvement in regional security in the Middle East, particularly through collective diplomacy and multilateral conflict resolution
- In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge
- The Iran War Shows the Limits of U.S. PowerArticle
Amr Hamzawy
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Parliamentary Elections in Occupied Ukraine Risk Backfiring for the KremlinCommentary
Despite unhappiness on the ground, Moscow is determined to use both carrot and stick to ensure there is record support for United Russia in occupied Ukraine.
Konstantin Skorkin
- Moldova’s Ruling Party PAS Must Graduate From Crisis Management to State GovernanceCommentary
Whether PAS can refocus on the unfinished business of state-building may ultimately prove more consequential for Moldova’s European future than the pace of its accession negotiations.
Balázs Jarábik
- Snubbed by United Russia as Elections Loom, Medvedev Looks Condemned to Eternal ObscurityCommentary
Medvedev’s defeat in the battle for the position of speaker appears to signal that the long process of his marginalization in Russian politics has passed the point of no return.
Andrey Pertsev
- Loyal but Powerless: The Downgrading of Russia’s ElitePaper
The ruling elites in contemporary Russia are not a political class, but a community of managers who are not subject to competition or public accountability. The state is becoming an operating apparatus without any internal autonomy.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- What Does Pashinyan’s Parliamentary Victory Mean for Armenia’s Future?Commentary
Pashinyan’s pro-European party has been re-elected with a decisive victory. But the pro-Russian opposition could still slow Armenia’s progress toward peace with Azerbaijan and rapprochement with Europe.
Mikayel Zolyan
