Research
- +6
Yasmine Farouk, Nathan J. Brown, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, …
{
"authors": [
"Michele Dunne"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Egypt"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Forcing the Military to Choose
The Egyptian military will play a critical role in Egypt's transition period, but whether they will support a democratic transition or the status quo remains to be seen.
Published on Feb 11, 2011
Source: New York Times
Another question is whether the military will have a public voice separate from that of Mubarak and Suleiman. The Supreme Military Council's "communique #1" issued on Thursday said it would "support the legitimate demands of the people." That statement suggests an effort to establish such a voice, which is a striking departure from the past 20 years or so, in which the military did not speak on political issues.
The Egyptian demonstrators seem to be gaining rather than losing momentum, and at some point soon may try to force the military to choose between the Mubarak/Suleiman regime and the Egyptian people. They could do this by marching en masse, several hundred thousand strong, to the presidential palace and threatening to go over the walls. Such tactics would place much more pressure on the military than it has experienced up until now.
The army would then have to choose between shooting at unarmed protesters or calling on the political leaders to step aside or to meet the protesters' main demands: that Mubarak resigns, the state of emergency be lifted, and the parliament dissolved. It is not clear how much communication there is between the army and the youth organizations steering the protests, and whether such scenarios have been discussed.
About the Author
Michele Dunne
Former Nonresident Scholar, Middle East Program
Michele Dunne was a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on political and economic change in Arab countries, particularly Egypt, as well as U.S. policy in the Middle East.
- Islamic Institutions in Arab States: Mapping the Dynamics of Control, Co-option, and Contention
- From Hardware to Holism: Rebalancing America’s Security Engagement With Arab StatesResearch
- +8
Robert Springborg, Emile Hokayem, Becca Wasser, …
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Could the Rise of the New People Party Reshape Russia’s Managed Political System?Commentary
Anger over online restrictions has led to a surge in support for the New People party, which has replaced the Communists as Russia’s second most popular political party.
Andrey Pertsev
- In Russia, the Public Mood Is SouringCommentary
The Russian regime is now visibly motivated by fear.
Alexander Baunov
- The Rada Reawakens: Ukraine’s Messy Politics ReturnsCommentary
The return of parliamentary politics reflects a broader shift from earlier expectations of a settlement and elections toward the reality of a prolonged war.
Balázs Jarábik
- Who Is Responsible for the Demise of the Russian Internet?Commentary
The Russian state has opted for complete ideological control of the internet and is prepared to bear the associated costs.
Maria Kolomychenko
- Is Opposition to Online Restrictions an Inflection Point for the Russian Regime?Commentary
After four years of war, there is no one who can stand up to the security establishment, and President Vladimir Putin is increasingly passive.
Tatiana Stanovaya
