Article
Marc Pierini
{
"authors": [
"Marc Pierini"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Turkey’s Transformation"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "EP",
"programs": [
"Europe"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Europe",
"Türkiye",
"Middle East",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
What Turkey’s High-Stakes Elections Mean for the West
For the citizens of Turkey, the upcoming elections boil down to a choice between a one-man-rule system with no checks and balances and a possible return to a more liberal and parliamentary system of governance.
By Marc Pierini
Published on Jun 20, 2018
Source: Axios
Turkey is slated to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on June 24. The current leadership has moved the vote forward by 16 months in the hopes of avoiding fallout from a badly deteriorating economy.
Why it matters: For Erdoğan, the combined elections are a matter of political survival after more than 15 years in power. For the opposition, they represent the first serious opportunity to send the incumbent president into retirement. For the citizens of Turkey, this boils down to a choice between a one-man-rule system with no checks and balances and a possible return to a more liberal and parliamentary system of governance.Turkey’s dual elections on Sunday are deeply flawed:
- The country’s ongoing state of emergency favors the current leadership.
- The new election law is less fraud-proof.
- On-air reporting is massively unfair, to the benefit of the incumbent president.
- Kurdish presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş — who is running his campaign from jail — has been threatened with capital punishment by President Erdoğan himself.
The possible outcomes:
- An Erdoğan victory would mean more Turkish hostility toward Western powers. The U.S. would face a host of grievances, including the F35 delivery schedule, the use of the İncirlik Air Base and support to Syrian Kurds. Turkey, meanwhile, would try to reap maximum concessions from the EU — on trade, visa-free travel to Europe and support for Syrian refugees — while eschewing alignment with EU governance and economic standards. More importantly, should Erdoğan emerge electorally victorious but politically weaker with a narrow electoral margin — a real possibility — tensions with the West would put him at greater risk of Russian manipulation against NATO.
- A victory for the strongest anti-Erdoğan contender, Muharrem İnce, backed by a united parliamentary majority, would lead to a more amicable relationship with the West, especially if Turkish politics returned to a rule-based system. But to earn credibility, this new leadership would have to quickly take a stand on restoring a strong relationship with NATO and relaunching peace talks with Turkey’s Kurds. These are no small endeavors.
The big picture: Most polls predict that Erdoğan will carry the presidency. In that event, liberties and tolerance in Turkey's diverse society would fall even further, followed by Turkey’s alliance with the West.
About the Author
Marc Pierini
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Marc Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.
- Europe’s Overseas Countries and Territories as Geopolitical Assets
- Deciphering Europe’s Relationship with TurkeyCommentary
Marc Pierini
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Leaving Russian-Speakers Without Representation Is a Risk for LatviaCommentary
If the Russian-speaking community in Latvia cannot articulate their interests without being seen as disloyal, they could end up embracing a pro-Kremlin agenda.
Sergejs Potapkins
- Putin Has Been a Hindrance, Not a Help, to United Russia’s Election CampaignCommentary
Russia’s ruling party would have benefited from Putin appearing as its distant patron, but as an active frontman imposing his views on the public, he has done nothing but harm both the party’s election campaign and the ruling system overall.
Andrey Pertsev
- Ten Years After Karimov’s Death, How Much Has Uzbekistan Really Changed?Commentary
In the tenth year of his presidency, President Mirziyoyev’s system is becoming even more personalized than that of his predecessor Karimov.
Galiya Ibragimova
- As It Turns 25, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Reflects the New World OrderCommentary
With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the SCO will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them.
Temur Umarov
- As a Former Defense Minister Revolts in Ukraine, Is Zelensky’s System Fracturing?Commentary
The greater threat to Zelensky comes not from Fedorov alone, but from the convergence between the former defense minister’s political campaign and the anti-corruption investigations moving ever closer to the presidential administration.
Balázs Jarábik
