Commentary
Maksim Samorukov
{
"authors": [
"Maksim Samorukov"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Western Balkans",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"EU",
"Security"
]
}
Source: Getty Images
Ever Increasing Circles: How Bulgaria Is Straying from Russia’s Orbit
Bulgarians may still know the name of the Russian ambassador better than the frequently changing heads of their own government, but beyond the media buzz, most of Moscow’s leverage in Bulgaria has perished in the flames of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Published on Jun 18, 2025
For over a century and a half, Bulgaria has featured prominently in Russia’s Black Sea strategy. Instead of direct annexation, the country was assigned the role of a humble satellite, always ready to facilitate Russia’s access to Europe and the Mediterranean as well as ward off other powers from Russia’s southern coast. These objectives haven’t changed much in the 21st century. Joint energy projects with Bulgaria were supposed to bring Russian energy giants closer to European markets, bypassing less pliant transit states, while historical affinity with Bulgarians was leveraged to limit NATO’s presence in and around the Black Sea. The results of Russia’s efforts, however, are in many ways the opposite of those intended.
This paper is a part of the project “Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea” by Transatlantic Leadership Network. Other papers of the project are available here.
About the Author
Maksim Samorukov
Fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Samorukov is a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
- Will Hungary’s New Leader Really Change EU Policy on Russia and Ukraine?
- In Odesa’s Shadows: What Is Russia’s Strategy in Moldova?Paper
Maksim Samorukov
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Kremlin’s Wartime Censorship Could Prove Fatal for Russia’s Beleaguered Book IndustryCommentary
Political pressure and economic headwinds are closely intertwined problems for Russian publishers and booksellers. Together, they risk propelling Russia into a “post-literate” era.
Galina Yuzefovich
- Russia’s Rubber-Stamp Duma Elections Are Exposing Schisms in Putin's RegimeCommentary
In the discussions made possible by the State Duma election campaign, one question is being asked more and more loudly. “What next?”
Andrey Pertsev
- Russia’s Best-Placed Political Émigrés Are Those With Nothing to LoseCommentary
While the Nazis rushed ahead in a revolutionary fervor, Russia’s modern crusaders against enemies of the state work methodically, giving their targets time to adjust to restrictions before closing the loopholes.
Leonid Bershidsky
- Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central AsiaCommentary
When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.
Galiya Ibragimova
- What Do the Hacked Messages of ‘Putin’s Goddaughter’ Ksenia Sobchak Reveal About Russian Politics?Commentary
Reading the purported correspondence of celebrity Ksenia Sobchak sheds light on her role within the system, and how journalism and politics function in Putin’s Russia.
Vladislav Gorin
