Commentary
Arms supplies from Russia to Iran will not only continue, but could grow significantly if Russia gets the opportunity.
Nikita Smagin
Research
Diplomacy in Crisis, Subnational Diplomacy Evolves
For practitioners of subnational diplomacy, 2025 has required quick adaptation and evolution to tectonic shifts.
Published on Dec 15, 2025
About the Authors
Marissa Jordan
Program Manager, Carnegie California
Marissa Jordan is the program manager of Carnegie California at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She has a master’s degree in conflict analysis and resolution from the Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution at George Mason University. Her previous research has focused on how anti–human trafficking service providers understand climate change’s role in driving human trafficking in their particular regions.
Ian Klaus
Founding Director, Carnegie California
Ian Klaus is the founding director of Carnegie California. He is a leading scholar on the nexus of urbanization, geopolitics, and global challenges, with extensive experience as a practitioner of subnational diplomacy.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- How Far Can Russian Arms Help Iran?
- Can the Disparate Threads of Ukraine Peace Talks Be Woven Together?Commentary
Putin is stalling, waiting for a breakthrough on the front lines or a grand bargain in which Trump will give him something more than Ukraine in exchange for concessions on Ukraine. And if that doesn’t happen, the conflict could be expanded beyond Ukraine.
Alexander Baunov
- Once Neutral on the Ukraine War, Arab States Increasingly Favor MoscowCommentary
Disillusioned with the West over Gaza, Arab countries are not only trading more with Russia; they are also more willing to criticize Kyiv.
Ruslan Suleymanov
- Signs of an Imminent End to the Ukraine War Are DeceptiveCommentary
The main source of Russian aggression is a profound mistrust of the West and the firm belief that it intends to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia. As long as this fear persists, the war will not end.
Tatiana Stanovaya
- Japan’s “Militarist Turn” and What It Means for RussiaCommentary
For a real example of political forces engaged in the militarization of society, the Russian leadership might consider looking closer to home.
James D.J. Brown
