• Commentary
  • Research
  • Experts
  • Events
Carnegie China logoCarnegie lettermark logo
{
  "authors": [
    "Minxin Pei",
    "Michael D. Swaine"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "United States",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Democracy",
    "Economy",
    "Trade",
    "Military",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE

REQUIRED IMAGE

Other

Rebalancing United States-China Relations

Link Copied
By Minxin Pei and Michael D. Swaine
Published on Feb 12, 2002

Source: Carnegie

Summary

President George W. Bush's visit to China this month is an opportunity to do far more than make rhetorical commitments to a constructive U.S.-China relationship. The post-9/11 context, China's accession to the WTO, and Beijing's impending leadership change converge to make important improvements possible. Policy adjustments on key security issues and a new attitude toward Chinese political reform would lay the basis for a balanced, long-term China policy that could command broad political support in the United States.

Direct U.S. presidential leadership is especially crucial for managing the four core security issues: Taiwan, missile defense, non-proliferation, and counter-terrorism. Washington should reaffirm its "one China" policy, clarify its intent on missile defense, and press China to fulfill its obligations to non-proliferation agreements.

A forward-looking strategy also demands that the United States abandon its ambivalence toward the support of Chinese political reform. It should, instead, provide leadership to promote democratic institutions and the rule of law in China.

Click on the link above for the full text of this Policy Brief.

A limited number of print copies are also available.
Request a copy

About the Authors
Michael Swaine
is senior associate and codirector of the China Program. He specializes in Chinese security and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian international relations. Previously he served as research director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Policy at the RAND Corporation.

Minxin Pei, senior associate and codirector of the China Program, conducts research in Chinese politics, economic reform, East Asian politics, U.S. relations with East Asian countries, and democratization in developing countries. Before joining the Carnegie Endowment, he was a faculty member of the politics department at Princeton University. He is the author of Future Shock: The WTO and Political Change in China (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief No. 3).

The Endowment's new China Program was launched in October 2001. Its research on political economy, security studies, and rule of law will be conducted through partnerships with Beijing's Central Party School and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

About the Authors

Minxin Pei

Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program

Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

Michael D. Swaine

Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program

Swaine was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.

Authors

Minxin Pei
Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program
Minxin Pei
Michael D. Swaine
Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program
Michael D. Swaine
DemocracyEconomyTradeMilitaryForeign PolicyNuclear PolicyUnited StatesChina

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie China

  • Robot arm with disposable test tube virus sampling in laboratory
    Commentary
    Caught in the Middle: Chinese Biotech Firms’ Divergent Responses to U.S. Sanctions

    Chinese biotech companies have been on the receiving end of U.S. economic coercion. Yet their responses have differed significantly because firm and state interests are not uniformly aligned. For Washington, treating all Chinese tech firms the same, irrespective of their actual interests, risks pushing them farther into Beijing’s corner.

      Xue Gong

  • An aerial drone photo taken on June 4, 2026 shows a wind-photovoltaic power storage station of Huadian Inner Mongolia New Energy Co., Ltd. as part of the Horinger data center cluster green energy supply demonstration project, in Hohhot, north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
    Commentary
    Are Data Centers the Solution to China’s Renewables Excess Capacity?

    China’s latest energy plan explicitly calls for integrating data centers into the electricity system, particularly connecting them to green energy. It appears Beijing wants to use compute as a source of domestic demand to absorb renewables excess capacity.

      • Damien Ma

      Damien Ma

  • Commentary
    Emissary
    Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of Stability

    But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.

      • Damien Ma

      Damien Ma

  • Commentary
    China Sells Stability Amid American Volatility

    U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.

      Chong Ja Ian

  • Vietnam's Top Leader To Lam meets with young representatives from China and Vietnam participating in the "Red Study Tours" at the Great Hall of the People on April 15, 2026 in Beijing, China. T
    Commentary
    Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s Direction

    Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.

      • Nguyen-khac-giang

      Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie China
Carnegie China logo, white
Keck Seng Tower133 Cecil Street #10-01ASingapore, 069535Phone: +65 9650 7648
  • Research
  • About
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie China
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.