The North Korea Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for Negotiations

{
  "authors": [
    "Michael D. Swaine",
    "Alan Romberg"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "East Asia",
    "South Korea",
    "China",
    "Japan",
    "Caucasus",
    "Russia",
    "North Korea"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Military",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Nuclear Policy",
    "Nuclear Energy"
  ]
}

In The Media

The North Korea Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for Negotiations

If the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia can reach a basic understanding on how to handle North Korea, the effort to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program and accept a reasonable "more-for-more" agreement, while not easy, should enjoy a reasonable chance of success.

By Michael D. Swaine and Alan Romberg

Published on May 6, 2003

Source: Arms Control Today

The entire article can be read in Arms Control Today May 2003.

About the Authors

Michael D. Swaine

Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program

Swaine was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.

Alan Romberg

Alan Romberg is distinguished fellow and the director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center. Before joining Stimson he served for 27 years in the U.S. Department of State, with over 20 years as a Foreign Service officer.

Security Military Foreign Policy Nuclear Policy Nuclear Energy North America United States East Asia South Korea China Japan Caucasus Russia North Korea

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie China

Commentary
China Financial Markets
The Plaza Accord and Its Relevance for China
The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the adjustment was intended to resolve.
Michael Pettis
Paper
Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its Allies
The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.
Tong Zhao
Commentary
China Financial Markets
Who Paid for China’s Last Debt Cleanup, and Who Will Pay for the Next?
China’s banking crisis in the 2000s was resolved by transferring the costs to households through financial repression—a decision that recapitalized the banks while exacerbating the structural imbalances that continue to shape the Chinese economy today.
Michael Pettis
Commentary
Caught in the Middle: Chinese Biotech Firms’ Divergent Responses to U.S. Sanctions
Chinese biotech companies have been on the receiving end of U.S. economic coercion. Yet their responses have differed significantly because firm and state interests are not uniformly aligned. For Washington, treating all Chinese tech firms the same, irrespective of their actual interests, risks pushing them farther into Beijing’s corner.
Xue Gong
Commentary
Are Data Centers the Solution to China’s Renewables Excess Capacity?
China’s latest energy plan explicitly calls for integrating data centers into the electricity system, particularly connecting them to green energy. It appears Beijing wants to use compute as a source of domestic demand to absorb renewables excess capacity.
Damien Ma

The North Korea Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for Negotiations

More Work from Carnegie China

Commentary

China Financial Markets

The Plaza Accord and Its Relevance for China

The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the adjustment was intended to resolve.

Michael Pettis

The nuclear missile formation passes through Tian'anmen Square during a military parade on September 3, 2025 in Beijing, China.

Paper

Untangling the Nuclear Knot: A Constructive Agenda for Managing China’s Nuclear Relations with the United States and Its Allies

The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.

Tong Zhao

Commentary

China Financial Markets

Who Paid for China’s Last Debt Cleanup, and Who Will Pay for the Next?

China’s banking crisis in the 2000s was resolved by transferring the costs to households through financial repression—a decision that recapitalized the banks while exacerbating the structural imbalances that continue to shape the Chinese economy today.

Michael Pettis

Robot arm with disposable test tube virus sampling in laboratory

Commentary

Caught in the Middle: Chinese Biotech Firms’ Divergent Responses to U.S. Sanctions

Chinese biotech companies have been on the receiving end of U.S. economic coercion. Yet their responses have differed significantly because firm and state interests are not uniformly aligned. For Washington, treating all Chinese tech firms the same, irrespective of their actual interests, risks pushing them farther into Beijing’s corner.

Xue Gong

An aerial drone photo taken on June 4, 2026 shows a wind-photovoltaic power storage station of Huadian Inner Mongolia New Energy Co., Ltd. as part of the Horinger data center cluster green energy supply demonstration project, in Hohhot, north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Commentary

Are Data Centers the Solution to China’s Renewables Excess Capacity?

China’s latest energy plan explicitly calls for integrating data centers into the electricity system, particularly connecting them to green energy. It appears Beijing wants to use compute as a source of domestic demand to absorb renewables excess capacity.

Damien Ma