Source: Southern California Public Radio

President Bush’s September 9th announcement that 8,000 troops will be withdrawn from Iraq by February 2009 reflects the extreme fragility of the current situation, and a recognition that the gains made to date could quickly unravel, according to Jessica Mathews. Many observers expected a larger drawdown. During an interview with Larry Mantle of NPR affiliate KPCC, Mathews argued that such a modest withdrawal leaves the larger question of when and how to exit Iraq to the next president.

Although conditions have improved, the troop surge of January 2007 has not met its primary goal – to facilitate political reconciliation among Iraq’s warring factions. Noting that Saddam Hussein’s overthrow created a power vacuum, and that the American troop presence is blocking a potentially inevitable power competition, Mathews questioned whether sustainable political progress is achievable under these conditions. The continued lack of political reconciliation makes it appear that the United States’ presence in Iraq is only delaying a power struggle. 

Asked how best to marginalize the Taliban in Afghanistan, Mathews responded that the only solution is a large-scale, determined development program, strong enough to make the achievements necessary to show Afghans that they have more to gain by supporting the government and opposing the Taliban and al Qaeda. The flourishing poppy trade and the active sanctuary Taliban and al Qaeda operatives enjoy in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province further complicate an already-forbidding situation, making it essential that the war in Afghanistan receive the focus and resources necessary for success. 

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