Commentary
But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.
Damien Ma
{
"authors": [],
"type": "pressRelease",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"Middle East",
"Israel",
"Palestine"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE
Press Release
Obama administration should focus on short-term calm between Israel and Hamas
It will be impossible to manage, much less resolve, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict while ignoring Hamas. The Obama administration should use diplomacy to restore a livable situation for the present, and at a later date move back toward longer-term diplomacy.
Published on Jan 23, 2009
WASHINGTON, Jan 23—It will be impossible to manage, much less resolve, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict while ignoring Hamas. The Obama administration should use diplomacy to restore a livable situation for the present, and at a later date move back toward longer-term diplomacy, Nathan J. Brown explains in a new commentary.
Key Conclusions:
- The “West Bank First” strategy of building up the Ramallah-based government is not working. Palestinians in the West Bank have seen only modest improvements in living standards and security with no sign at all that the Israeli occupation of the West Bank will end.
- Elections will not outmaneuver Hamas. Elections cannot be held in Gaza without Hamas’ cooperation—which they are unlikely to give if the deck is stacked against them. And there is no guarantee they will lose.
- Fatah has shown no signs of rebuilding or reforming itself after its electoral rebuke in 2006. Their leaders have focused on short-term solutions and returning to power.
- Donors or actors looking to work with the Palestinian Authority and avoid Hamas in Gaza have forgotten that in Gaza, Hamas is the Palestinian Authority.
- Soft-liners are unlikely to split from Hamas. Public disagreements within Hamas do occur on occasion but schisms are almost unknown.
Brown concludes:
“There may be no Nobel Prize to be had here, but making sure the real negotiations succeed—and then immediately worrying about the next step—is a far more promising approach than pretending that the parties can be cajoled, muscled, and jawboned into a final and comprehensive settlement under current conditions.”
###
NOTES
- Nathan J. Brown is director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University, a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, and a distinguished scholar and author of four well-received books on Arab politics.
- The Carnegie Middle East Program provides analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region.
- The Carnegie Middle East Center based in Beirut, Lebanon, aims to better inform the process of political change in the Middle East.
- Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin has been transformed into a full-featured website that offers greatly enhanced search functionality, the option for readers to comment on articles, and frequent news updates.
- Press Contact: Trent Perrotto, 202/939-2372, tperrotto@ceip.org
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of Stability
- China Sells Stability Amid American VolatilityCommentary
U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.
Chong Ja Ian
- Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s DirectionCommentary
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
- China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of EverythingCommentary
Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.
Damien Ma
- Malaysia’s Year as ASEAN Chair: Managing DisorderCommentary
Malaysia’s chairmanship sought to fend off short-term challenges while laying the groundwork for minimizing ASEAN’s longer-term exposure to external stresses.
Elina Noor
