Commentary
Peter Kellner
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Source: Getty
In The Media
Failed Deal Spells Uncertainty for Brexit and May’s Long-term Survival
The recent Brexit developments plunge UK politics into crisis. While there’s a clear majority against the government’s plans, there’s no evident majority in favor of a specific alternative.
By Peter Kellner
Published on Jan 16, 2019
Source: Axios
The U.K. Parliament has rejected the government’s Brexit plans, in a sweeping 432–202 vote. The development plunges U.K. politics into crisis: While there’s a clear majority against the government’s plans, there’s no evident majority in favor of a specific alternative.
Why it matters: If Parliament cannot agree on what to do next, the U.K. will by default crash out of the EU without a deal. This could do immense damage to the U.K.'s economy, potentially taking as much as a 10.7% hit to the country’s GDP.
Background: For the past 2 years, the U.K. has been negotiating an agreement on the terms of its EU departure, set for March 29 — just 10 weeks from now. Prime Minister Theresa May hoped that a majority of MPs would support her agreement so that Brexit could proceed in an orderly manner, but those hopes have now been dashed.
The government has been defeated by a coalition of opposites: around 120 MPs who want a more clear-cut, “hard” Brexit, and believe that May has compromised too much; and over 300 MPs who think Brexit is a mistake.
The margin of the government’s defeat — far greater than any previous U.K. government's on a major policy — also raises questions about May’s future. In the short term, she should survive.
- A vote of no confidence in the government — proposed by Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn — will be debated on Wednesday, but it’s almost certain to be defeated. The one thing all Conservatives agree on is that they don’t want the general election that a successful vote would entail.
- But in the weeks and months ahead, May’s survival is far less certain.
What’s next: May will return to Parliament next Monday, setting out her plans in the wake of her heavy defeat. She has said that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” It remains to be seen whether she will hold her ground, which would appease the 120 hard-Brexit MPs, or pivot to a softer Brexit to build a cross-party consensus.
What to watch: Whatever May does, Parliament may decide to seize control of the process and assemble a different majority — potentially one that agrees to hold a fresh referendum. The possibility that the U.K. will end up remaining in the EU can no longer be dismissed.
About the Author
Peter Kellner
Former Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Kellner was a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focused on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.
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