Why Ukraine Will Win

{
  "authors": [
    "Francis Fukuyama"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "democracy",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "DCG",
  "programs": [
    "Democracy, Conflict, and Governance"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Why Ukraine Will Win

By contrast, if Ukraine can regain military momentum before the end of 2022, it will be much easier for leaders of Western democracies to argue that their people should tighten their belts over the coming winter.

By Francis Fukuyama

Published on Sep 8, 2022

Journal of Democracy

About the Author

Francis Fukuyama

Nonresident Scholar, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Francis Fukuyama is a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where his research focuses on democratization and international political economy.

Security Foreign Policy Russia Eastern Europe Ukraine

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie China

Commentary
Emissary
Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of Stability
But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.
Damien Ma
Commentary
China Sells Stability Amid American Volatility
U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.
Chong Ja Ian
Commentary
Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s Direction
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
Commentary
China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of Everything
Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.

Damien Ma
Commentary
Malaysia’s Year as ASEAN Chair: Managing Disorder
Malaysia’s chairmanship sought to fend off short-term challenges while laying the groundwork for minimizing ASEAN’s longer-term exposure to external stresses.
Elina Noor

More Work from Carnegie China

Commentary

Emissary

Trump and Xi Are Angling for Three Years of Stability

But their "principal to principal" model will only be as effective as the political strength of each leader back home.

Damien Ma

Commentary

China Sells Stability Amid American Volatility

U.S. unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds.

Chong Ja Ian

Vietnam's Top Leader To Lam meets with young representatives from China and Vietnam participating in the "Red Study Tours" at the Great Hall of the People on April 15, 2026 in Beijing, China. T

Commentary

Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s Direction

Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.

Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Commentary

China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of Everything

Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.

Damien Ma

Commentary

Malaysia’s Year as ASEAN Chair: Managing Disorder

Malaysia’s chairmanship sought to fend off short-term challenges while laying the groundwork for minimizing ASEAN’s longer-term exposure to external stresses.

Elina Noor