See what these leading experts have to say on such key questions as, are the United States and China on a collision course? And, what are the economic and strategic implications of China's transformation?
Source: Foreign Policy, January/February 2005
The report is based on the Carnegie conference, "China's Peaceful Rise?” held in the fall of 2004. Click here for speaker biographies, videos, and transcripts of that event.
The Once and Future China by Jonathan Spence
Clash of the Titans by Zbigniew Brzezinski and John Mearsheimer
Why is China Growing So Slowly by Martin Wolf
A Grand Chessboard by Ashley Tellis
Lifting All Boats by Homi Kharas
Dangerous Denials by Minxin Pei
Click on the link above for full text of this report.
Jonathan Spence
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski served as national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter from 1977-1981. He is the author of several acclaimed books on foreign policy, most recently, Strategic Visions: America and the Crisis of Global Power.
John Mearsheimer
Martin Wolf
Former Senior Fellow
Ashley J. Tellis was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Homi Kharas
Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program
Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.
China’s political future will be shaped between now and next October. As the Communist Party enters its intense “campaign season” to prepare for a major political transition in 2027, reading Beijing's actions and responses may become more difficult as domestic politics weigh on its behavior more than usual.
Damien Ma
China has showcased its engineering prowess with small modular reactor demonstration projects. But turning these technological achievements into commercial success will be a greater challenge.
Tong Zhao
The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the adjustment was intended to resolve.
Michael Pettis
The nuclear relationship between China and the United States is increasingly shaped by widening perception gaps rather than deliberate strategic design.
Tong Zhao
China’s banking crisis in the 2000s was resolved by transferring the costs to households through financial repression—a decision that recapitalized the banks while exacerbating the structural imbalances that continue to shape the Chinese economy today.
Michael Pettis
