Commentary
The Thai-Cambodian conflict highlights the limits to China's peacemaker ambition and the significance of this role on Southeast Asia’s balance of power.
Pongphisoot (Paul) Busbarat
{
"authors": [
"Alexey Malashenko"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Security",
"Religion"
]
}
Commentary
Dagestan on the Eve of the Olympics
The situation in Dagestan is chronically tense, and many analysts think that the civil war there continues. The conflict is accompanied by social Islamicization, as well as the growing influence of radical Islam and Salafi movements.
Published on Jan 16, 2014
Lives are lost in Dagestan practically every day. The situation in the republic is chronically tense, and many analysts, including those in the region, think that the civil war there continues. Dagestanis are tired of this war; they are sick of permanently living under stress. War has become part of their lives, and some even learned to talk about it with a morbid sense of humor.
The question of what sparked the civil war is no longer relevant. The question of how order in the republic can be restored has been left unanswered for almost two decades. Hardly anyone believes that the conflict can be resolved. Ramazan Abdulatipov, Dagestan’s president who was appointed in 2013, promised to restore order, but has found himself unable to effect any meaningful change.
The conflict is accompanied by Dagestan’s social Islamicization, as well as the growing influence of radical Islam and Salafi movements. The term “shariatization” is now increasingly used to describe the revival of sharia legal system (more than twenty sharia courts operate in Dagestan), the establishment of behavioral norms based exclusively on Islamic values, and the strict observance of religious restrictions. In some reported instances, “unknown assailants” knocked kvass (non-alcoholic Russian beverage) mugs out of people’s hands on the streets. It has become extremely hard to buy alcohol in Dagestan, even in its capital Makhachkala, despite the fact that 86 percent of Russian brandy is produced in Dagestan. Alcohol vendors have every reason to fear for their lives—a few stores and kiosks that sold alcoholic beverages were blown up by the militants.
Dagestani society is essentially split into three groups.
The first more numerous one adheres to traditional Islam and is supportive of the authorities.
The second one is smaller but more active. To varying degrees it endorses the Salafi ideas, and opposes the regime.
In general, both these groups support Dagestan’s Islamicization. However, while the first group believes this can be accomplished within the framework of the Russian Federation, the second group sees the creation of an Islamic state as the eventual goal, which is only possible outside of Russia. In other words, the second group harbors separatist aspirations.
There is also a third group which continues to stand up for the secular state, believing that Islamicization reverses modern trends and takes Dagestan farther away from Russia. This situation contributes to turning Dagestan and some other Caucasus regions into Russia’s internal abroad, living in accordance to their own traditions and norms. It appears that those supporting the secular state are gradually losing their positions.
During my Dagestan trip in December 2013, I occasionally came across the view that the tensions there may escalate even more, and a new flare-up of terrorist attacks is possible. The low-level civil war continues.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie China
- China’s Mediation Offer in the Thailand-Cambodia Border Dispute Sheds Light on Beijing’s Security Role in Southeast Asia
- China Is Determined to Hold Firm Against Trump’s PressureCommentary
Beijing believes that Washington is overestimating its own leverage and its ability to handle the trade war’s impacts.
Rick Waters, Sheena Chestnut Greitens
- A Second Trump Term: Will Southeast Asia Tilt Toward China?Commentary
Tapping our network of China experts in the region, Carnegie China offers this latest “China Through a Southeast Asian Lens” report to offer preliminary assessments of whether the U.S. effort to reshape the global trading order will lead countries in the region to tilt toward Beijing.
- +6
Selina Ho, Khin Khin Kyaw Kyee, Joseph Ching Velasco, …
- Is China Willing to Influence Russia on the Ukraine War?Commentary
Beijing is trying to navigate the overall situation regarding Ukraine, especially the substance of interactions between Washington and Moscow.
- +1
Ellen Nakashima, Zhao Long, Pavlo Klimkin, …
- The Challenges Behind China’s Global South PoliciesCommentary
While China will remain a significant political and economic force in the Global South, its ambition to leverage the Global South as a counterbalance to the United States and the Global North is far from assured.
Xue Gong
