conference

2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference

October 27, 2022 - October 28, 2022
Washington, DC

For over 30 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, disarmament, deterrence, energy, and security at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.

For over 30 years, experts, officials, executives, journalists, and students from across the globe have come together to debate—and explore solutions for—the most pressing challenges in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, disarmament, deterrence, energy, and security at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.

A Keynote Conversation with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi
Speaker
 

Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi

IAEA Director General
Moderator
 

Tino Cuéllar

President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Can the Russo-Ukrainian War End Without Nuclear Use?

Starting even before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin made a series of nuclear threats. Now, the growing failure of his forces on the battlefield has created widespread concerns that he may order the use of nuclear weapons. How serious is this risk? What options does the United States and the broader international community have to try to deter or prevent Russian nuclear use? How do the possible consequences of a nuclear war compare to the negative precedent that would be set by offering concessions to Russia in an effort to negotiate an end to the war? And, how much worse would this precedent be if such concessions were offered only after Russia used nuclear weapons?

Speakers
 

Patrick Porter

Professor of International Security and Strategy, University of Birmingham
 

Kori Schake

Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute
 

Polina Sinovets

Head, Odessa Center for Nonproliferation
Moderator
 

Michael Mazarr

Senior political scientist, RAND Corporation
Tick, Tick, Boom? Presidential Decision-making in a Nuclear Attack

If Russia or the United States detected an incoming nuclear attack, its president could, under extraordinary time pressure, be asked to decide whether to launch an immediate nuclear response. This panel begins with a showing of The Nuclear Biscuit, a virtual reality experience developed by Sharon Weiner and Moritz Kütt, which aims to simulate the choices that would be faced by a president in deciding whether and how to respond. How realistic is the simulation? What are the information constraints that would shape a presidential decision to launch nuclear weapons on warning of an incoming nuclear attack? How much do launch-under-attack options contribute to deterrence? Should Russia and the United States retain them, modify them, or scrap them?

Speakers
 

Alexey Arbatov

Head of the Center for International Security, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations
 

Chris Ford

MITRE Fellow and Founding Director, Center for Strategic Competition, MITRE Corporation
 

Sharon Weiner

Associate professor, School of International Service
Moderator
 

Susan Glasser

New Yorker
A Keynote Conversation with Amb. Gustavo Zlauvinen
Speaker
 

Ambassador Gustavo Zlauvinen

President, Tenth Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Moderator
 

Ambassador Laura Kennedy

Director, Foreign Policy 4 America
A Keynote Conversation on the Future of Arms Control
Speakers
 

Administrator Jill Hruby

Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration
 

Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins

Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, United States Department of State
Moderator
 

Ankit Panda

Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program
Presentation of the Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award
In Memoriam
 
A Keynote Conversation with German Minister of State Katja Keul
Speaker
 

Katja Keul

Minister of State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany
Moderator
 

Scott Sagan

Professor and Co-Director of CISAC, Stanford University
Parsing for 2022 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review
Speakers
 

Alexandra Bell

Senior Policy Director, Arms Control Center
 

Corey Hinderstein

Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation
 

Richard Johnson

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy
 

James M. Acton

Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
SIDE SESSION
Unpacking the Challenges at the Intersection of Nuclear Weapons and Climate Change

Organized by the Truman Center for National Policy

Nuclear weapons and climate change are existential threats to the United States and global security, but the urgency of the policy response is plainly inadequate. Furthermore, both threats disproportionately affect marginalized communities and vulnerable populations—including within the United States—and require an intersectional approach in identifying solutions. Despite these parallels, the threats of nuclear weapons and climate change are rarely considered together. Frontline communities are impacted by nuclear weapons and climate change but remain disenfranchised with little voice in policy making on these critical issues. This session will consider how traditionally marginalized and vulnerable populations are often overlooked by policymakers and politicians, and thus lack access to decision-making processes that impacts their communities.

Speakers

Lilly Adams

Senior Outreach Coordinator, Union of Concerned Scientists

Mari Faines

Partner for Mobilization, Global Zero

Alexandra Meise

Associate Teaching Professor, Northeastern University School of Law
Moderator

Lily Wojtowicz

Janne Nolan Nuclear Security Fellow, Truman Center for National Policy
SIDE SESSION
What Happens When Nuclear Weapons Are Used: An Expert Discussion on Humanitarian Response Capacity

Organized by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons

What is the reality of the aftermath of a nuclear detonation? In this session, experts from the governmental and humanitarian sectors will focus on humanitarian needs following the detonation of a tactical or strategic nuclear weapon. Nuclear policy discourse about the aftermath of a nuclear detonation is often centered on military retaliation options instead of practical response requirements. By focusing on the realities of nuclear weapon use, this session will help guide policymakers and researchers as they assess nuclear risks and consider policies governing nuclear weapons.

Speakers

Véronique Christory

International Committee of the Red Cross

Ambassador Alexander Kmentt

Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Jasmine Owens

Physicians for Social Responsibility

Mitchie Takeuchi

Entrepreneur, Filmaker, and Activist
Moderator

Alicia Sanders-Zakre

International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
Opening Presidential Address
Speaker
 

Tino Cuéllar

President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Studying Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century: Approaches, Theories, and Defining Questions

Growing nuclear dangers—exemplified by Russia’s recent nuclear threats and North Korea’s development of “tactical” nuclear weapons—compel the nuclear community to critically assess nuclear deterrence's future role in national security strategies, as well as its viability and fallibility. What are the most dangerous escalation pathways that might ultimately lead to the intentional or accidental use of nuclear weapons? In what ways, if at all, do international law and ethical dilemmas constrain the behavior of nuclear weapons states and their leaders, especially in authoritarian regimes? How can new approaches to nuclear and non-nuclear arms control or risk reduction help mitigate perceived challenges with deterrence? What credible security alternatives can replace nuclear deterrence or mitigate some states' current reliance on nuclear weapons? These questions demand further study, greater collaboration among institutions, interdisciplinary analyses, and inter-generational perspectives. The MacArthur Research Network on Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence seeks to provide a platform for discussion, dialogue, and debate across the nuclear community to mitigate the risks posed by nuclear weapons. Organized by Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center

Opening Remarks
 

Matt Bunn

Professor of Practice, Harvard Kennedy School
Speakers
 

Rebecca Gibbons

Assistant Professor, University of Southern Maine
 

Ulrich Kühn

Director, Arms Control & Emerging Technologies Program, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy Hamburg
 

Scott Sagan

Professor and Co-Director of CISAC, Stanford University
 

Manpreet Sethi

Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
Moderator
 

Francesca Giovannini

Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center
CONCURRENT SESSION:
Resolution Through Resolution? Open-Source Information and Nuclear Policy

Almost exactly 60 years ago, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Adlai Stevenson revealed highly classified aerial photographs during a Security Council meeting to prove the Soviet Union was deploying missiles in Cuba. Today, unprecedented quantities of information about global nuclear-weapon and fuel-cycle developments are available—much of it produced by private companies and nongovernmental experts. How is this transparency affecting international politics? Does it enable greater scrutiny and hence more effective policy making, including in monitoring and verifying agreements? Does it fuel arms racing by creating public pressure for states to respond to adversaries’ developments? Could it help de-escalate crises by preventing governments from exaggerating their opponent’s actions? Or could it lead to escalation by reducing the flexibility of governments to make face-saving accommodations?

Speakers
 

Jeffrey Lewis

Professor and Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project, Middlebury Institute for International Studies
 

James Murphy

National Intelligence Officer for Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
 

Mareena Robinson Snowden

Senior Advisor, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, U.S. Department of State
Moderator
 

Beth Sanner

Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center
CONCURRENT SESSION:
Poles Apart: Deterrence or Disarmament After the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Nuclear weapons appear to have shaped the Russo-Ukrainian war even in the absence of their use. The possibility of nuclear escalation apparently contributed to NATO’s decision not to commit forces as well as Russia’s decision to refrain from attacking NATO states to try to stem the supply of military equipment to Ukraine. Is this interpretation correct? If so, what implications might it have for nonproliferation and disarmament? Is the main lesson to acquire or retain nuclear weapons to deter aggression against yourself and your allies? Or is it that disarmament should be a priority since nuclear weapons can enable aggression by deterring others from defending the victim and because the international community should not be held hostage to unilateral threats to instigate nuclear war? For the foreseeable future, which conclusion are nuclear-armed states, their allies, and non-nuclear weapon states more likely to draw?

Speakers
 

Mariana Budjeryn

Senior Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center
 

Ambassador Alexander Kmentt

Director of Disarmament, Arms Control and Nonproliferation, Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs
 

Michiru Nishida

Professor, School of Global Humanities and Social Sciences, Nagasaki University
 

Mélanie Rosselet

Director for Strategy and Policy, French Atomic Energy Commission
Moderator
 

Manpreet Sethi

Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
SIDE SESSION
Educating Students, Military Officers, and Policy Professionals on Nuclear Issues

Organized by National Defense University INSS Center for the Study of WMD

Providing education on nuclear issues—whether to undergraduates, military officers, policy professionals, or the public—is critically important. But educators at all levels can encounter myriad challenges in attempting to develop and deliver informative and engaging content addressing the complex and interdisciplinary nature of nuclear policy. This session will provide information on nuclear education best practices, assess present challenges, and identify issues for audience discussion. Panelists will share their experiences in education and teaching at civilian and military institutions in the United States and Europe, as well as insights on nuclear policy educational needs gained from advising policymakers.

Speakers

Paul Bernstein

Distinguished Research Fellow, National Defense University Center for the Study of WMD

Jane Vaynman

Senior Advisor, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, U.S. Department of State

Sanne Verschuren

Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for International Studies, Sciences Po
Moderator

Justin Anderson

Senior Policy Fellow, National Defense University Center for the Study of WMD
SIDE SESSION
New Challenges to Strategic Stability in the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Competition

Organized by the Stimson Center

Strategic stability within the China-India-Pakistan triangle is becoming more difficult to sustain. The accidental launch of an Indian cruise missile into Pakistan in March was arguably the first time that one state fired a nuclear-capable missile into the territory of a nuclear rival. Developments in naval nuclear forces include Pakistan’s acquisition of Chinese submarines for nuclear and conventional missions, generating inadvertent escalation risks. This session will explore deterrence stability challenges, such as emerging drone and cyber technologies, evaluate how great power competition affects third-party crisis mediation, and discuss potential confidence-building measures to reduce dangers within this increasingly unpredictable strategic competition.

Speakers

Sylvia Mishra

Senior Nuclear Policy Associate, Institute for Security and Technology

Beenish Pervaiz

Doctoral Student, Brown University

Tong Zhao

Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderator

Elizabeth Threlkeld

Senior Fellow and Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
CONCURRENT SESSION
Plus Ça Change? Innovations in Delivery Systems

Nuclear-armed states are rapidly enhancing the capabilities of existing kinds of delivery systems while developing and deploying a variety of new ones. The range of terminally guided ballistic missiles is steadily climbing and their accuracy improving. Hypersonic boost-glide weapons have now been deployed. Additional new kinds are under development: orbital weapons, hypersonic cruise missiles, and nuclear-powered cruise missiles and torpedoes. What implications do these developments have for nuclear deterrence? Do they enhance the credibility of nuclear first use (limited or otherwise)? Do they complicate escalation management? And do they help lock in mutually assured destruction or risk undermining it?

Speakers
 

Laura Grego

Senior Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists
 

Sun Xiangli

Deputy Director, Center for Strategic Studies, China Academy of Engineering Physics
 

Greg Weaver

Former Deputy Director for Strategic Stability, U.S. Joint Staff
Discussant
 

Jiang Tianjiao

Associate Professor, Development Institute, Fudan University
Moderator
 

Elena Chernenko

Special Correspondent, Kommersant
CONCURRENT SESSION
Will We Know It When We See It? Diversity, Equity and Inclusion in Nuclear Policy

Governmental institutions play a critically important role in advancing diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the nuclear policy field given the size of their workforces, agenda setting function, and ability to adapt policy processes to improve outcomes, particularly for minority communities. How do these institutions define their metrics for success in this endeavor, and how are they performing in meeting these objectives? What effect did the COVID-19 pandemic have on these efforts? And what lessons have been learned thus far on promoting accountability toward the defined objectives?

Speakers
 

Amb. Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley

Chief Diversity and Inclusion Officer, U.S. Department of State
 

Richard Johnson

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy
 

Angelica Liao-Moroz

Executive Director for Non-Proliferation, Disarmament and Space, Global Affairs Canada
 

Chris King

Deputy Chief and Senior Political Affairs Officer, Weapons of Mass Destruction Branch, UN Office for Disarmament Affairs 
Moderator
 

Emma Belcher

President, Ploughshares Fund
CONCURRENT SESSION
Arms Control in Europe After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Really?

Following the extension of New START in 2021, Moscow and Washington began a strategic stability dialogue to explore next steps. This process assumed greater political salience in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Russia and the United States and NATO exchanged various proposals for arms control measures in Europe. These proposals included geographical limits on intermediate-range missiles and inspections of Aegis Ashore missile defenses. Can arms control help to end the war or build a more robust European security architecture afterwards? If so, what security concerns should it aim to address and through what types of measures? And under what conditions would it become politically feasible?

Speakers
 

Ambassador Cornel Feruta

Romanian Ambassador to the United Nations
 

Hanna Notte

Senior Research Associate, Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation
 

Sergey Rogov

Academic Director, Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
 

Wendin Smith

Director, Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Nonproliferation Centre, NATO
Moderator
 

Judy Dempsey

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
CONCURRENT SESSION
Wizardry from Oz? AUKUS and Nonproliferation

The United Kingdom and the United States plan to transfer naval nuclear propulsion reactors fueled by highly enriched uranium to Australia—the first such transfer to a non-nuclear-weapon state. What are this program’s implications for the nonproliferation regime? Can the IAEA credibly apply safeguards to fissile materials in such military uses? Might the agreement motivate interest among other non-nuclear-weapon states in naval nuclear propulsion? Does it suggest a fraying consensus among great powers on nonproliferation standards? And can the three AUKUS partners help establish new norms and rules to mitigate any negative consequences?

Speakers
 

Ambassador Ian Biggs

Ambassador for Arms Control and Counter-Proliferation, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
 

Mariana Plum

PhD Student, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
 

Laura Rockwood

Former Director, Open Nuclear Network
Moderator
 

Alex Ward

National Security Reporter, POLITICO
 

We are excited to announce the return of the Young Professionals Track, consisting of additional activities before and during the conference for participants with fewer than five years of professional experience, including graduate students.

 

The Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award was presented at the 2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.

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Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.