Syria's Increasingly Brutal Civil War

{
  "authors": [
    "Frederic Wehrey"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Arab Awakening"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "Syria",
    "Levant"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Security"
  ]
}

In The Media

Syria's Increasingly Brutal Civil War

As violence continues to spiral out of control in Syria, all signs point to a protracted struggle for the future of Syria.

By Frederic Wehrey

Published on Aug 1, 2012

Source: BBC

Speaking on the BBC, Frederic Wehrey commented that both the Syrian regime and the rebels have become increasingly brutal in their tactics. After the rebels' assassination of top officials in Damascus, Assad has decidedly increased the draconian crackdown against the protesters and rebel forces. Wehrey noted that “this is a regime that has ruled through fear and an iron fist. Assad is calculating that if he shows any sign of capitulation or weakness that it’s his downfall, it’s a slippery slope.” Moreover, Assad may believe that this civil war is still winnable, Wehrey added. He is surrounded by his own supporters and views himself and his regime as the protectors of the Alawi community. He is protected by the elite Republican Guard Corps, commanded by his brother. With both the rebels and the regimes forces continuing their brutality and evolving their tactics, Wehrey concluded that, for the moment, all signs point to a protracted struggle for the future of Syria.

About the Author

Frederic Wehrey

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Frederic Wehrey is a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on governance, conflict, and security in Libya, North Africa, and the Persian Gulf.

Recent Work

Research
Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow’s Influence and Its Limits
- +11
  Frances Z. Brown, Nate Reynolds, Priyal Singh, …
Commentary
How the Flaws of Trump’s Gaza Deal Prevent an Enduring Peace
- Charles H. Johnson, Frederic Wehrey

Political Reform Security Middle East Syria Levant

Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie India

Article
India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic Choices
This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.
Vrinda Sahai
Commentary
The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports
This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.
Vrinda Sahai
Article
Military Lessons from Operation Sindoor
The India-Pakistan conflict that played out between May 6 and May 10, 2025, offers several military lessons. This article presents key takeaways from Operation Sindoor and breaks down how India’s preparations shaped the outcome and what more is needed to strengthen future readiness.
Dinakar Peri
Book
India and the Sovereignty Principle: The Disaggregation Imperative
This book offers a comprehensive analysis of India's evolving relationship with sovereignty in a complex global order. Moving beyond conventional narratives, it examines how the sovereignty principle shapes India's behavior across four critical domains—from traditional military power to contemporary data governance.
Rudra Chaudhuri, Nabarun Roy
Article
Hidden Tides: IUU Fishing and Regional Security Dynamics for India
This article examines the scale and impact of Chinese IUU fishing operations globally and identifies the nature of the challenge posed by IUU fishing in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It also investigates why existing maritime law and international frameworks have struggled to address this growing threat.
Ajay Kumar, Charukeshi Bhatt

More Work from Carnegie India

Article

India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic Choices

This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.

Vrinda Sahai

Commentary

The Impact of U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs on India’s Russian Oil Imports

This piece examines India’s response to U.S. sanctions and tariffs, specifically assessing the immediate market consequences, such as alterations in import costs, and the broader strategic implications for India’s energy security and foreign policy orientation.

Vrinda Sahai

Article

Military Lessons from Operation Sindoor

The India-Pakistan conflict that played out between May 6 and May 10, 2025, offers several military lessons. This article presents key takeaways from Operation Sindoor and breaks down how India’s preparations shaped the outcome and what more is needed to strengthen future readiness.

Dinakar Peri

Book

India and the Sovereignty Principle: The Disaggregation Imperative

This book offers a comprehensive analysis of India's evolving relationship with sovereignty in a complex global order. Moving beyond conventional narratives, it examines how the sovereignty principle shapes India's behavior across four critical domains—from traditional military power to contemporary data governance.

Rudra Chaudhuri, Nabarun Roy

Article

Hidden Tides: IUU Fishing and Regional Security Dynamics for India

This article examines the scale and impact of Chinese IUU fishing operations globally and identifies the nature of the challenge posed by IUU fishing in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It also investigates why existing maritime law and international frameworks have struggled to address this growing threat.

Ajay Kumar, Charukeshi Bhatt