Commentary
Aron Lund
{
"authors": [
"Aron Lund"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Syria",
"Levant"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Democracy",
"Security",
"Military",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
The Five Most Important Events in Syria in 2016
The biggest developments in Syria in 2016.
By Aron Lund
Published on Dec 30, 2016
Source: Century Foundation
Looking back at 2016, it is clear that the Syrian civil war is going President Bashar al-Assad’s way. His Damascus government has been boosted by the Russian military intervention that started in autumn 2015, a surge in Iranian support, the weakening of the Islamic State (ISIS, or IS) and of rival opposition forces trapped in a spiral of sectarian extremism and infighting.
A year ago, I published a fairly long and detailed list of what I felt were the most important events in 2015, with a view to their likely impact in 2016, at Joshua Landis’ Syria Comment blog (still worth reading in my view, and useful background to this commentary).
Back then, the conflict trend also seemed to be running in Assad’s favor, though there were exceptions like the continuing economic and institutional decay of the Syrian state. Huge uncertainties remained, particularly regarding the efficiency of the Russian intervention, the economic situation, and Assad’s ability to flexibly play politics and capitalize on his military gains. Some of those questions have since been resolved, mostly though not exclusively in Assad’s favor, but other uncertainties remain—and the Syrian war is proving very resistant to predictions.
With all that in mind, here is another list, in order from least to most important...
About the Author
Aron Lund
Former Nonresident Fellow, Middle East Program
Aron Lund was a nonresident fellow in the Middle East Program and the author of several reports and books on the Syrian opposition movement.
- Going South in East Ghouta
- The Jihadi SpiralCommentary
Aron Lund
Recent Work
Carnegie India does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie India
- Managing Divergence: India’s BRICS Presidency in 2026Article
This piece argues that India’s central challenge is not managing a single flashpoint but resolving the underlying tension between expansion and institutional coherency of the BRICS grouping.
Vrinda Sahai
- India–Africa Strategic Partnership: Challenges, Potential, and Possible PathwaysArticle
A partnership between India, a country of subcontinental size, and Africa, a continent of fifty-four countries, may seem asymmetric until one notes that both are home to nearly the same number of people—1.4 billion. This essay spells out the existing challenges to the partnership, its optimal potential, and the possible pathways to realize it over the next quarter-century.
Rajiv Bhatia
- Emerging From the “Zombie State” of Trade Agreements: The India-EU FTACommentary
The India–EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is shaping up to be one of the most consequential trade negotiations, both economically and strategically. But, what’s in the agreement, what’s missing, and what will determine its success in the years ahead
Vrinda Sahai, Nicolas Köhler-Suzuki
- The Coming of Age of India’s Nuclear TriadCommentary
The induction of INS Aridhaman, which features several technological enhancements, now gives India the third nuclear ballistic missile submarine to ensure continuous at-sea deterrent.
Dinakar Peri
- India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic ChoicesArticle
This piece argues that the present Indian strategy, based on opportunistic diversification and utilization of limited strategic reserves, remains inadequate when confronting supply disruptions. It evaluates India’s options in the short, medium, and long terms.
Vrinda Sahai
