After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in early December 2024, Syrian refugees throughout the Middle East and the world could finally contemplate returning home. On the other side of the border, in Lebanon, following months of devastating war with Israel, the new year began on a high note as the country’s parliament elected a new president, Joseph Aoun. While Syria and Lebanon are undergoing major political transformations, the future of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon remains in limbo, requiring a more cohesive approach.
In his inaugural speech to parliament upon his election, Aoun emphasized his commitment to facilitating a return of refugees to Syria by establishing a clear, implementable policy framework in cooperation with the Syrian government. He further stressed the need for a plan of action “free from racist proposals or negative approaches.” The fate of the refugees appears to be a top priority on the president’s political agenda.
Two days after the presidential election, caretaker prime minister Najib Miqati visited Damascus, the first visit by a Lebanese prime minister to Syria in fifteen years. While there were no specific outcomes on the prospects for a refugee return or agreed policy proposals, the visit set the stage for heightened diplomatic contacts between the two countries. It also laid the groundwork for negotiations in the year to come aimed at securing the return of refugees and addressing the smuggling and chaos along the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Despite this progress, much remains to be done to initiate a voluntary return process. The lingering question is how the Lebanese government and the international community can ensure the voluntary, safe, and dignified return of Syrian refugees while adhering to principles embedded in international humanitarian conventions. The United Nations special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, understandably described this transitional phase as a moment of “great opportunities and real dangers.”
Since 2011, the Lebanese government’s management of the refugee presence has been characterized by ambivalence, ad hoc policy measures, and efforts to shift the responsibility for the refugees onto the international community. Lebanon’s new leadership faces the challenge of moving away from this approach to adopt one that is more proactive and preserves Lebanese interests while protecting the rights of the refugees to self-determination.
The Lebanese discourse on the refugees has often been defined by demagoguery and improvisation, lacking any consensus on how the issue of return should be addressed. That is why, as soon as a new government is formed, Lebanon should establish a committee to define a unified position and set a clear policy framework, which would serve it in discussions with the Syrian government and the international community. The committee should explore viable options for a refugee return and the potential legal pathways for those wishing to remain in Lebanon. By establishing such a framework, the government can unify its efforts and better defend Lebanese national interests in international forums.
Simultaneously, Lebanon must reform its residency regulations to offer options for Syrians, based on their circumstances. Those wishing to stay and work should have access to work permits, which would contribute to the economy, while the state should seek to reduce their vulnerability to exploitation. For those seeking to return to Syria or visit the country, legal measures have to be established under the oversight of the Lebanese state.
Today, the number of Syrians leaving Lebanon through official border crossings remains “low but steady,” highlighting the need for proactive steps to facilitate their return. These include security guarantees, financial incentives, and legal pathways that respect Lebanon's sovereignty, such as temporary permits, visa regulations, or coordinated reentry agreements. Strengthening the role of the Lebanese armed forces and the General Security Directorate to monitor the borders with Syria effectively is essential to ensuring safe and organized access for those willing to return. Last May, the European Union pledged €1 billion in financial assistance to Lebanon for 2024–2027, part of which is earmarked to equip and train the armed forces and other security agencies for border management and combating smuggling. This presents a significant opportunity for Lebanon to address its border challenges.
The matter of refugee return is not solely a Lebanese interest. Both regionally and internationally there has been an impetus to take advantage of the Assad regime’s downfall to push for a return of Syrian refugees. Several European countries have already suspended the processing of asylum claims. The UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency, has resumed operations in areas of Syria where security has improved, such as Aleppo and Damascus, with around 80 percent of community centers now operational, providing essential services to returnees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). However, despite such advances, the reality remains grim for many who have chosen to go home. Recent UNHCR reports indicate that over 125,000 refugees have returned after years of exile, only to face severe challenges such as inadequate shelter, food shortages, and a lack of access to basic services.
After more than a decade of conflict in Syria, with 7.2 million IDPs and 6.2 million refugees around the world, it is unrealistic to expect that the situation will improve overnight. Many returnees will find their homes destroyed or uninhabitable. Based on initial assessments, the UNHCR has appealed for $310 million to address the urgent humanitarian needs of the population and support recovery efforts. Given the complexity of the process and the uncertain outcome of Syria’s political situation, policymakers must anticipate a gradual return process that guarantees livelihoods, security, and infrastructure for returnees.
That is why, before seeking financial assistance, Lebanon should diversify its diplomatic efforts and engage with the international community to exert pressure for a smooth political transition in Syria. This would help secure the rights of the Syrian people and support them in creating a government from and for the people. An internationally recognized framework akin to the Geneva peace process could be a good starting point to provide a transitional governing body. Once security is established, this would facilitate the provision of aid that then supports recovery efforts, creating a socioeconomic environment that is more amenable for returnees. For instance, the Gulf states and the International Monetary Fund have expressed a willingness to engage in Syria’s reconstruction once political and security conditions allow it. The country’s economic viability will make it more likely that refugees go home and contribute to rebuilding their communities.
Beyond local and international dynamics, the decision to return remains a personal choice, shaped by individual circumstances and aspirations. Host governments, including Lebanon, must recognize the complexities faced by those who have established livelihoods in their countries, as well as by younger generations that have never known Syria as home. These categories of refugees should be given the opportunity to apply for residency and the option of building a life in host countries on a legal basis while ensuring their freedom of choice. Host countries, of course, have a sovereign right to take decisions on immigration. However, given the ongoing uncertainty in Syria, many refugees remain reluctant to return to a country in which their confidence has been shaken, while others are operating in Lebanon’s economy, albeit informally and on the margins. Hence, their contributions, if fully integrated and recognized in law, could significantly aid Lebanon’s economic recovery during this transitional phase. Calling for a return of refugees must therefore be framed carefully within an international context that enables refugees to make informed choices based on freedom, security, and safety, while ensuring there is a legal basis for their presence in Lebanon.
While the Assad regime may be no more, Syria’s humanitarian crisis persists. Given the volatility and uncertainty in this intermediate period, the return of refugees will not be swift or straightforward. Instead, it will require long-term commitment, strategic planning, and clear coordination among key stakeholders: the Lebanese and Syrian governments, the international community, and, most importantly, the Syrian people themselves. It is essential to avoid prioritizing short-term gains over the stability required for lasting change.
Assad’s ouster does not automatically pave the way for a return of refugees. Achieving this objective necessitates continuous effort and a long-term vision for a secure and hopeful future for Syrians, who have faced monumental hardship for over a decade. Through united action, collaboration, and determination, hope and opportunity can pave the way for meaningful change, rather than half measures that only generate new problems in the future.
