Kheder Khaddour is a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. His research is focused on civil military relations and local identities in the Levant, with a concentration on Syria. Most recently, he co-authored a major paper on Syria’s borders with Armenak Tokmajyan, titled, “Borders Without a Nation: Syria, Outside Powers, and Open-Ended Instability.” Diwan interviewed him in early February to get his perspective on the Syrian-Lebanese border, which has been the site of cross-border conflict in recent weeks.
Michael Young: How has the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria affected the situation along the Syria-Lebanon border?
Kheder Khaddour: In the months leading up to the fall of the Syrian regime, Israeli airstrikes intensified along the border, including those targeting official border crossings. These attacks weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities. The regime’s collapse created a new security reality. Groups operating under the supervision of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham took control of the official border crossings and their combatants spread across all the border areas, replacing Hezbollah militants and the former Syrian army and security forces. This created an extremely fragile security situation on both sides of the border. On the one hand, the Lebanese state’s authority had always been weak in these areas, and on the other, the groups that took control of the Syrian side had a militia-based structure.
MY: Recently, there has been fighting in border areas. What has been the cause of this?
KK: The most recent round of fighting has been concentrated in the areas of Qusayr in Syria and the Hermel area of northeastern Lebanon. The most crucial factor here has been demographics. There is a mix of Shiite and Sunni villages in these areas. Hezbollah entered Syria through Qusayr in 2013, but the focus today is not on the city itself but primarily on the area west of the Orontes River. In this region, there are mainly Shiite villages populated by Lebanese, whose inhabitants have owned land on the Syrian side of the border for decades. The area, which served as a gateway into Syria during the Syrian conflict, is today the place of armed confrontation between members of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Shiite families such as the Jaafar and Zeaiter clans. These conflicts reflect the ongoing sectarian tensions that have persisted since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2012.
MY: Smuggling has long been a problem along the border, and recent reports indicate that it is continuing. What are the implications of this for the new Syrian government? Is it in a position to bring such activities to an end?
KK: Smuggling has been a main problem since the establishment of the border between Syria and Lebanon. There are two types of smuggling. First, smuggling involving essential goods, which has never stopped and is linked to price differentials between markets in the two countries. Currently, in the middle of a tense security situation, smuggling networks are transporting goods such as diesel fuel and poultry from Lebanon into Syria. Hundreds of families on both sides of the border depend on this trade for their livelihood. The second type of smuggling is political in nature, and includes weapons, drugs, and people. This has completely stopped in the last two months given the removal of the Assad regime and Hezbollah’s inability to engage in cross-border activities.
MY: What is Hezbollah’s status in the border area, given that at one time the party played a major role in controlling both sides of the border? Have we seen a retreat of Hezbollah on this front?
KK: Hezbollah is currently besieged, with the Lebanese army on one side of the border in Lebanon and members of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and affiliated groups on the Syrian side. However, the party retains considerable influence in the Beqaa region and across all Shiite villages along the border. Hezbollah’s activities in the border area depend on two main factors: its position within the new political framework of the Lebanese state; and the security and sectarian tensions along the border, which could create a suitable ground for renewed Hezbollah activity. Another important factor is the ongoing Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah’s activities and assets. Strikes against clans linked to the party will weaken its presence in the border area, while strengthening Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham on the Syrian side.
MY: One fear in Lebanon is that the new leadership in Damascus has Salafi jihadi origins, and that this may have a spillover effect on Lebanon. Do you consider this scenario realistic, and what do you see as the potential risks?
KK: I think this issue will fundamentally reshape the relationship between Lebanon and Syria. There are three main points here: Syria’s new ideology; the defeat of the so-called Axis of Resistance in the region and the ensuing security vacuum; and the potential for sectarian conflict in Lebanon. The ideology of the forces on the ground in Syria today primarily defines itself through the “other.” That is, the Sunni ideology of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is a reaction to the Shiite political ideology that has dominated in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Today, the rulers in Damascus are shaping a new Syrian identity, one based on ideological foundations, which expresses itself through phrases such as the description of Syria as “the state of the Umayyads,” or phrases shared on social media such as, “Oh Iran, go crazy, the Sunnis are coming to rule us!” Even Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s de facto president, has entered the fray, speaking of a “natural Syria,” by which he means a Sunni Syria, as opposed to a Shiite Syria.
The Axis of Resistance has left a large security vacuum in Syria after its defeat by Israel in the year after the October 13, 2023 Hamas attack from Gaza. This vacuum has been filled by local jihadi groups, which could provide inspiration to Salafi networks inside Lebanon, enabling them to express themselves from Tripoli to Akkar and the Beqaa Valley. The Salafi movement in Lebanon feels empowered because of the developments in Syria, and its relationship with its Syrian counterparts is likely to strengthen over time. Such a development could create sectarian tensions in Lebanon, with local conflicts undermining civil peace and stability. For example, in the Zahleh region, there are two towns, Taalabaya, which includes Shiites, and Saadnayel, which is Sunni. Celebrations in Saadnayel over Assad’s downfall were characterized by schadenfreude directed against the Shiites of Taalabaya. Posters of Ahmad al-Sharaa on car windows and jihadi songs fill the streets every now and then. Such practices could escalate into armed confrontations across regions of Lebanon.
More generally, religion does not drive politics and what takes place on the ground. However, local identity is already politicized, and as long as the situation in Syria remains unstable, the general mood in Lebanon will be charged and susceptible to mobilization based on perceptions of the self and of the other. This is what we need to watch out for.
