What Happened?
After decades of threats and years of planning, Israel has launched a widescale military assault on Iran. In doing so, it has pried open a Pandora’s box of possibly catastrophic consequences. Despite its assertion that this was a preemptive strike, Israel is clearly the instigator. The campaign marks yet another step in the erosion of international law and diplomatic norms most evident in the Gaza war. While the exchange of fire between the two countries is not new, the extent of Israel’s offensive is unprecedented and seems to have two goals: dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and destabilizing the Iranian regime by destroying its military capacity. The attack has caused significant damage to Iran’s military capacities as well as nuclear facilities, including the Natanz nuclear site. In addition to nearly 80 civilians, the attacks have killed at least six nuclear scientists (out of some 25 who appear to have been targeted), as well as several members of the military leadership, many of whom were sleeping in their beds. The list includes Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces; Hossein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC); Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC’s air force; Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force; and Ali Shamkhani, a close aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the country’s chief representative in talks with Saudi Arabia as well as nuclear talks with the United States. Iran’s retaliation has killed three Israeli civilians but proven largely ineffective, with nearly all the drones and missiles it has launched against Israel thus far intercepted before they reached their targets.
Why Is It Important?
The strikes replicated Israel’s strategy of decapitating the leadership of Lebanon’s Hezbollah while simultaneously crippling the group’s military capacities. They place the region on an escalatory conflict trajectory and have scuttled the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, the next round of which was scheduled to take place on Sunday in Oman. We are clearly at a critical juncture. Will the attacks push Iran to double down on its nuclear program? Even if it does not do so, force alone will not eradicate the country’s military nuclear capacities, meaning that a return to the negotiating table will be necessary. But in this instance, Iran would be returning with a weaker hand.
Indeed, militarily, Iran is in its most vulnerable position in decades. The country’s missile production facilities and air defenses were significantly damaged by Israel’s October 2024 attack. Its economy has been weakened by decades of extensive sanctions, and its forward defense strategy, namely its reliance on powerful regional partners and proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah, has been decimated over the past year and a half of the Gaza war. Additionally, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria disrupted Iran-Hezbollah weapons supply routes. Unlike October 2023, when Hezbollah launched direct attacks on Israel once the Gaza conflict began, this time the party has signaled that its support for Iran will not translate into direct military engagement with the Jewish state. More critically, the extent of Israel’s penetration of Iranian security services, which included the smuggling of drones to secret facilities in Iran, from which some of the attacks took place, cannot but humiliate Tehran. Unable to defend the homeland, the Iranian regime looks weak to its own people.
What Are the Implications for the Future?
What will unfold over the coming days remains unclear. Much will depend on Iran’s response to these unprecedented attacks and whether the United States, which has signaled support for Israel’s actions, will allow itself to be dragged more directly into the conflict. President Trump has indicated in a tweet that the United States may provide the munitions needed to penetrate Iran’s underground nuclear facilities. Beyond attacking Israel directly, Iran’s response options present an acute dilemma. Striking Saudi oil facilities, the Gulf region’s critical infrastructure, and U.S. interests or personnel would risk alienating states that could facilitate de-escalation. Disruption of maritime shipping in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz by Ansar Allah could seriously affect the global economy and lead to a further increase in oil prices. And while many in the Gulf countries, as well as Lebanese, Yemenis, Syrians and others who have borne the brunt of Iran’s regional activities, are not sad to see Iran’s military capacities weakened, they are extremely worried about the trajectory the region is on.
It will also take time to assess the impact of these attacks on the regime. In the short term, Iranians are likely to rally around the flag. But in the long term, the humiliating blow dealt to Iran’s military leadership may undermine the political regime’s stranglehold and could blow open the country’s internal fissures. Meanwhile, for Tehran’s regional partners and proxies, the challenge is even more potent. The weakening of Iran further enfeebles these groups—including Hezbollah, once the crown jewel of Iran’s axis of resistance. It underscores Hezbollah’s existential challenge, which is how to reshape its identity beyond the resistance narrative. While the party’s predicament may strengthen the Lebanese president and prime minister in their quest to consolidate all arms in the hands of the state, Hezbollah will seek even more forcefully to extract political gains in exchange for giving up its weapons.
Ultimately, this military offensive, which may continue for some time, has placed the region on an escalatory path. Where it leads cannot yet be determined. Much as we failed to imagine the full regional impact unleashed by Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, it is difficult if not impossible for us to predict the fallout of the latter’s attack on Iran. What we can say for certain is that the region is now in the throes of a profound transformation that will take years if not decades to fully manifest itself.
