• Research
  • Diwan
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Middle East logoCarnegie lettermark logo
LebanonIran
{
  "authors": [
    "Andrew S. Weiss"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Security"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Commentary

Ukraine: Watch the Guys with Guns

Without clear knowledge of what role radical and paramilitary groups, or Yanukovych loyalists, played in touching off this past week’s violence, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.

Link Copied
By Andrew S. Weiss
Published on Feb 21, 2014

The rush to applaud today’s news of a political breakthrough in Ukraine is understandable after the truly horrible, unforeseeable events of the past week. Everyone in Western European capitals and Washington clearly is invested in this deal succeeding. Western officials want an immediate halt to the dramatic spiral into violence, repression, and separatism that carried a clear risk of a Yugoslav-style meltdown in a country of 45 million.

It’s also remarkable that top diplomats like Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany and Laurent Fabius of France were willing to put their governments’ credibility on the line after several months of EU dithering and fecklessness in the aftermath of the disastrous Vilnius Summit.

Yet now comes the hard part.

The terms of the deal contain several provisions that may prove exceedingly difficult to implement. The most obvious is the demand that all “illegal weapons should be handed over to the Ministry of Interior bodies within 24 hours” and that all parties should respect laws governing the illegal carrying and storage of weapons. Unfortunately, televised images of yesterday’s deadly firefights in Kyiv leave no doubt that there are plenty of weapons on both sides.

The trio of opposition leaders who signed today’s agreement clearly do not control radical and paramilitary groups who have taken the lead in organizing popular armed resistance to President Yanukovych’s forces nor necessarily a majority of the people who have defended Maidan. One of these groups, Praviy Sektor (Right Sector) has already come out against today’s agreement, denouncing it as “eye-washing” and vowing to continue the national revolution.

The ugly fact remains that we still do not know for certain what kind of role such groups or Yanukovych loyalists played in touching off this past week’s violence. Until that part of the picture becomes clear, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.

About the Author

Andrew S. Weiss

James Family Chair, Vice President for Studies

Andrew S. Weiss is the James Family Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees research on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. His graphic novel biography of Vladimir Putin, Accidental Czar: the Life and Lies of Vladimir Putin, was published by First Second/Macmillan in 2022.

    Recent Work

  • Research
    Russia in Africa: Examining Moscow’s Influence and Its Limits
      • Nate Reynolds
      • +11

      Frances Z. Brown, Nate Reynolds, Priyal Singh, …

  • Other
    Unpacking Trump’s National Security Strategy
      • Cecily Brewer
      • +18

      James M. Acton, Saskia Brechenmacher, Cecily Brewer, …

Andrew S. Weiss
James Family Chair, Vice President for Studies
Andrew S. Weiss
Political ReformSecurityEastern EuropeUkraine

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

  • people watching smoke rising at sunrise from rooftops
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Bombing Campaigns Do Not Bring About Democracy. Nor Does Regime Change Without a Plan.

    Just look at Iraq in 1991.

      Marwan Muasher

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Baku Proceeds With Caution as Ethnic Azeris Join Protests in Neighboring Iran

    Baku may allow radical nationalists to publicly discuss “reunification” with Azeri Iranians, but the president and key officials prefer not to comment publicly on the protests in Iran.

      Bashir Kitachaev

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    Beirut Can Do More on Tom Barrack’s Proposal

    In addressing Hezbollah’s disarmament, the Lebanese state must start by increasing its own leverage.

      Michael Young

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    Iran After the Battle

    The country’s political and military establishment is still debating how to interpret the recent war’s outcome.

      • Nicole Grajewski Profile Picture

      Nicole Grajewski

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    The United States Has Attacked Iran’s Nuclear Facilities

    Spot analysis from Carnegie scholars on events relating to the Middle East and North Africa.

      Mohanad Hage Ali

Get more news and analysis from
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Carnegie Middle East logo, white
  • Research
  • Diwan
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
Get more news and analysis from
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.