Francesco Siccardi is a senior program manager and senior research analyst at Carnegie Europe, where he coordinates the strategic planning, fundraising, execution, and outreach for the center’s research programs. While supporting work on security, defense, and the EU’s global role, as well as the impact of climate change and disruptive technologies on international affairs, Francesco’s own research focuses on EU-Turkey relations and on EU policies toward the MENA region.
Francesco earned his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in International Relations from the University of Turin.
The outcome of Turkey’s vote will impact the country’s economy, governance, and international posture. A large victory of the ruling party would reinforce Erdogan’s personal power and strengthen his ties to Putin.
Turkey continues its balancing act, siding with the West on Ukraine but relying on Russia to pursue its ambitions of becoming a regional energy center. While progress toward bringing Turkey closer to the West will have its limits, there is scope for more cooperation between Brussels and Ankara.
Recent signs point to a rekindling of relations between Turkey and the West, particularly on action relating to Ukraine, but long-term energy dependencies indicate that Turkey and Russia will remain close partners for the foreseeable future.
Turkey’s dependence on energy imports has an impact on the country’s economic and geopolitical orientation. Turkish leaders should devise energy policies that respond to domestic priorities, regional ambitions, and the challenges posed by climate change.
As municipal elections near, the Erdogan government feels it is facing a dangerous situation that imposes a new military intervention.
President Erdogan has sought to rally the Turkish people around the republic’s centenary. But to realize its domestic and global ambitions, Ankara must tend to its economic crisis and rule-of-law deficiencies.
The Turkish president has three main priorities and the support of an overwhelmingly conservative parliament.
A return to a parliamentary democracy system—the opposition’s most important electoral promise—is highly unlikely if Erdogan remains in power. This would be bad news for Turkey’s Western allies.
The connection between construction projects, disregarded environmental regulations, and corruption remains crucial for understanding Ankara’s descent into authoritarianism.
For the first time in twenty years, a change of leadership in Turkey is possible. The EU must be prepared for the foreign policy shift an opposition victory would bring.
