After the fast disintegration of the Assad regime, the difficult reconstruction of the Syrian state is only just beginning. Meanwhile, Europe, Israel, Russia, Türkiye, and the United States have major stakes in Syria’s complex future.
Marc Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.
Pierini was a career EU diplomat from December 1976 to April 2012. He was EU ambassador and head of delegation to Turkey (2006–2011) and ambassador to Tunisia and Libya (2002–2006), Syria (1998–2002), and Morocco (1991–1995). He also served as the first coordinator for the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, or the Barcelona Process, from 1995 to 1998 and was the main negotiator for the release of the Bulgarian hostages from Libya from 2004 to 2007.
Pierini served as counselor in the cabinet of two European commissioners: Claude Cheysson, from 1979 to 1981, and Abel Matutes, from 1989 to 1991. He has published three essays in French: “Le prix de la liberté,” “Télégrammes diplomatiques,” and “Où va la Turquie?.”
Pierini is a member of the International Council of the Museum of European and Mediterranean Civilizations in Marseille.
After the fast disintegration of the Assad regime, the difficult reconstruction of the Syrian state is only just beginning. Meanwhile, Europe, Israel, Russia, Türkiye, and the United States have major stakes in Syria’s complex future.
Key leaders cannot prepare fast enough on issues such as NATO, Ukraine, and trade.
As the transatlantic allies adapt to Europe’s new geopolitical realities, maintaining unity against Russia will be critical. Türkiye will have a pivotal role to play in this long-term effort.
Latest developments in the Middle East signal that further escalation between Israel and Lebanon is likely.
With its foreign policy maneuvering space increasingly constrained, Turkey’s hedging between its NATO allies and Russia will be harder to maintain.
EU, French, and British votes will impact NATO’s agendas and policies—but only over time.
Turkey’s international ambitions have been thwarted by multiple crises, contradictory policies, and rule-of-law deficiencies.
Multiple crises have taken the international spotlight off Turkey. This, combined with Ankara’s contradictory foreign policy ambitions and rule-of-law deficiencies, limits the country’s global clout.
The meeting between Mitsotakis and Erdoğan gives hope that the Greek-Turkish reconciliation process remains unaffected by US-Turkey tensions.
Moscow is pushing Ankara toward lasting antagonism with the rest of NATO by putting pressure on their economic and political ties. But the trend is not irreversible, and Turkey has proved it can adjust its policies to appease the West.