Riyadh’s fence-sitting strategy reflects its desire to keep all doors open. Others may follow its lead.

Given the growing difficulties to reach meaningful consensus among all G20 members, Trump’s return is likely to accelerate the emergence of more pragmatic, mini-lateral initiatives between like-minded actors willing to move forward in a specific policy area, be it in the realm of security, climate, or trade.

Quick and transparent results, holding political actors accountable, curbing disinformation, and fostering cross-party collaboration are tools that any democracy can use to defuse tensions.

BRICS is emerging as a sandbox for experimentation with various non-USD instruments, including payment systems, cryptocurrencies, digitalized mechanisms for trade in national currencies or through barter, and hubs for commodities trading outside of dollar dominance.

The 16th BRICS Summit, which took place in the Russian city of Kazan, proved to be a symbolic diplomatic victory for Vladimir Putin. 

Since Brazil co-founded the BRICS in 2009, Brazilian analysts and politicians have largely agreed that membership brought tangible benefits to the country—including closer ties to China. But as this year’s summit approaches, the costs are adding up. 

A second Trump presidency would likely see the return of more explicit U.S. pressure on Latin American countries to pick sides in the brewing competition between the United States and China. That could create considerable friction in the region.

Rather than bemoaning the emergence of the BRICS, the West should court those member states that have a stake in making sure that the grouping does not become an overtly anti-Western outfit intent on undermining the global order.

The president has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere.

Lula’s policy is an attempt to exert influence over Brazil’s neighbor, but the recent past suggests this may have limited effect.