Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.
The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.
Rapid geopolitical change is curtailing Russian power in the South Caucasus, boosting the influence of Middle Eastern countries and bookending the region’s “post-Soviet” history.
Despite their bloody history and repeated recent disappointments, a long-term accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach.
Yerevan does not want to repeat the mistakes of the past by relying too much on a single ally.
Instead of Russian and Western drafts of a peace treaty, there will now only be one: Azerbaijan’s.
Russia failed to stop Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh and the flight of Karabakh Armenians. Consequently, Armenia will be looking elsewhere for security guarantees.
