A successful peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.
Despite their bloody history and repeated recent disappointments, a long-term accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach.
Yerevan does not want to repeat the mistakes of the past by relying too much on a single ally.
Instead of Russian and Western drafts of a peace treaty, there will now only be one: Azerbaijan’s.
Moscow’s ability to play the role of regional power broker has been hobbled by the invasion of Ukraine
Any broader peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would signal the start of a new era in the South Caucasus. Russia’s influence would decline, and Turkey’s—grow.
The international reaction to events in Nagorno-Karabakh has failed to prevent Azerbaijan from using military force to change the facts on the ground.
