Amid the war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan has become an essential partner for Russia when it comes to both energy exports, and keeping open a transport corridor to Iran.

While Baku appears inclined to pursue a “business only” arrangement with the European Union, it’s unclear whether that would be acceptable for Brussels.

Rapid geopolitical change is curtailing Russian power in the South Caucasus, boosting the influence of Middle Eastern countries and bookending the region’s “post-Soviet” history.

Despite their bloody history and repeated recent disappointments, a long-term accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach.

Yerevan does not want to repeat the mistakes of the past by relying too much on a single ally.

Instead of Russian and Western drafts of a peace treaty, there will now only be one: Azerbaijan’s.