The Georgian Dream party is stoking hopes among ordinary Georgians about the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Yet without Moscow’s approval, it’s impossible to imagine substantive negotiations taking place.

The Georgian Dream party has effectively threatened that if the opposition loses the upcoming election, it may lose legal means of fighting for power in the future. In other words, the authorities themselves are putting the opposition in a situation where street battles are the key to its survival.

Amid deteriorating relations with the West, Georgia has embarked on a long-term pivot toward Eurasia, with the potential for the further stabilization of relations with Russia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.

By adopting the law on foreign agents, the ruling Georgian Dream party is inviting Russia and the West to compete for Tbilisi’s favor.