Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.

Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

Having lost much of its support among Moldovans following its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin is prepared to use the Gagauzia region to destabilize the situation in Moldova and undermine its pro-EU president, Maia Sandu.

An extraordinary parliamentary session in Transnistria was a bid to attract international attention and a signal that the de facto state is ready to escalate.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu is going all in on EU integration successes as she looks to win presidential elections in the fall.

Not only will reabsorbing the breakaway region be expensive and complicated, but Russia is unlikely to cede its influence without a fight.