The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.
If the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks is maintained at the levels of March and Russian air defenses do not improve, Ukraine will be able to keep damaging Russian refineries faster than they can be fixed, slowly but steadily eroding the country’s refining capacity.
Ukraine’s decision not to hold presidential elections amid the Russian invasion and martial law has raised sensitive questions about Zelensky’s position.
To unpack the complex challenges Putin’s re-election presents to the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself, join an online discussion with Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center experts Alexander Baunov and Alexandra Prokopenko, moderated by Financial Times Russia correspondent Polina Ivanova.
An ageing Russian ruler surrounded by sycophants may embark on even more reckless moves in coming years
Extending the transport of Russian gas via Ukraine after 2024 would likely benefit both Russia and Ukraine. Stopping the flow of gas, on the other hand, would be painful for whichever side initiates it.
There are no grounds for the doom-filled prophecies that without Zaluzhny, Ukraine faces disaster. But the circumstances of the general’s departure do leave the impression of a president who is overreaching his hand by more or less openly putting narrow and selfish interests before considerations of state.
