The apparently accidental downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet by Russian air defenses on December 25, 2024, is fast becoming a defining moment in the evolving ties between the Kremlin and former Soviet republics. Instead of a relationship between an “imperial center” and “satellites,” we are increasingly seeing a more complex system of mutual agreements. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is a trailblazer in this regard, refusing to let Moscow off the hook for the air disaster.
The crash received less media attention than perhaps would have been expected because of the date on which it occurred, when much of the Western world was celebrating Christmas. Unsurprisingly, however, it dominated headlines in Azerbaijan and prompted an outpouring of grief. The hashtag #Russiamustapologize became the most widely used on Azerbaijani social media for several days.
While the Russian civilian and military authorities acted according to time-honored bureaucratic traditions of seeking to evade responsibility for as long as possible, Baku demanded Moscow admit its guilt, launch a transparent investigation, and punish those at fault.
Pressure was applied at the highest level. When the tragedy occurred, Aliyev was traveling to St. Petersburg, but he immediately ordered his plane to turn around and return to Azerbaijan. This was a prelude to a further cooling of ties. Several days later, Aliyev said the aircraft had been shot down by a land-based system and expressed outrage over efforts by the Russian side to “fudge the issue.” Even a phone call and evasive apology from Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to put the issue to rest. At a meeting with the relatives of the victims on January 6, Aliyev again stated that “the responsibility for the catastrophe lies with representatives of Russia.”
Aliyev’s rhetoric has raised questions about the state of ties between Russia and Azerbaijan, which had seemed to be on a positive trajectory since Baku seized the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Around then, Azerbaijani media began to take a more friendly tone toward Russia. And after Putin’s visit to Baku in August 2024, cooperation between the two countries on infrastructure projects deepened. Aliyev has made a point of repeating that the first foreign investor in Nagorno-Karabakh was Russian vehicle manufacturer KAMAZ.
In the summer of 2024, there was talk of Azerbaijan possibly helping to maintain Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine. One idea was a “swap deal” in which Azerbaijani gas would be pumped via Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary. Even though this never materialized, and gas transit through Ukraine halted on January 1, Aliyev was likely pleased he had been able to show that Azerbaijan could be an intermediary between Russia and Europe.
However, the downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J28243 means Aliyev is now locked in a confrontation with Moscow. The official Azerbaijani statement about Aliyev’s conversation with Putin regarding the crash claimed the plane was downed as a result of “external physical and technical interference.” Despite the careful language, it doesn’t leave much room for doubt. In contrast, the Russian statement about the same conversation expressed condolences for the “tragic incident” that “took place in Russia’s airspace.” In other words, Russia is a long way from admitting guilt.
Going forward, Aliyev will be able to use this incident to strengthen his position in other negotiations with Moscow, such as talks on the so-called Zangezur Corridor—the mooted transport route through Armenian territory to connect Azerbaijan with the exclave of Nakhchivan—which Aliyev insists must involve Azerbaijani border guards. Moscow has always been wary that agreeing to implement the corridor would risk strengthening ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan and result in the final loss of its role as an external arbiter in the South Caucasus.
The Ukraine war means Russia’s freedom of action is severely curtailed, and Azerbaijan is ready to press its advantage. This process could be characterized as shaking off the colonial legacy of the Soviet Union: not through democratization, but through greater foreign policy independence from the former imperial center. It’s not just the Kremlin that can impose rules on former Soviet republics—the process can also take place the other way around.
At the same time, Baku’s reaction to the air disaster was not simply determined by geopolitics. Public opinion in Azerbaijan was just as important. Photos of the damage inflicted on the airplane that subsequently crashed in Kazakhstan triggered a storm of indignation across Azerbaijani society. As a consequence, Aliyev faced a choice: either he was on the side of the Azerbaijani people, or he was with Russia. In a certain way, it became a question of legitimacy. Did Aliyev’s legitimacy come from within, or without? The Azerbaijani leader made a quick decision, showing solidarity with his angry population.
Until Azerbaijan’s resounding victory in the Second Karabakh War of 2020, Aliyev had to a large degree remained in the shadow of his father and predecessor as president, Heydar Aliyev. For this reason, Ilham Aliyev wants to show that he can deal with international leaders like Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as an equal.
Aliyev’s hardline position over the plane crash has once again affirmed his role as the “defender of the nation”: a nation that is not only impossible to oppress, but that can also stand up to its large, dangerous neighbor. Indeed, a sense of belonging to a national community is often predicated on being part of a nation that commands respect. And Azerbaijan’s response to the downed airliner could be added to a textbook on nation building. Whether intuitively or deliberately, Aliyev is acting according to the best principles of political science by fostering the shaping of a national identity.
Nevertheless, Aliyev’s approach could backfire. Tactical attacks on Moscow must yield something, otherwise disappointment could set in. It’s far from certain that Putin will abandon his traditional intransigence to do something like admitting culpability in the air crash and handing over those who are guilty to Baku. After all, if Putin concedes in this way, all Russia’s other allies would be lining up for the same treatment.
