The return of Donald Trump to the White House has breathed new life into domestic politics in Ukraine. All elections were suspended when martial law was imposed following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, but Trump’s promise to end the war means presidential elections could now be in the cards. Even though there is no guarantee that peace is around the corner, many are already starting to campaign.
The biggest unknown when it comes to a possible vote is whether former commander in chief Valery Zaluzhny will stand. It’s his participation—or lack of—that will shape the presidential race. Although Zaluzhny has been Ukraine’s ambassador to London since July 2024, he remains popular at home. He has not confined himself to purely diplomatic endeavors: he’s published his memoirs, which included some criticism of President Volodymyr Zelensky; met with Ukrainian military commanders; and commented on major issues such as how a new Ukrainian elite could be formed, and the West’s global strategy.
Zaluzhny’s popularity continues to grow, and at least 80 percent of Ukrainians say they trust him. In many ways, Zaluzhny’s appeal lies in his status as an outsider—just like Zelensky when he was first elected president in 2019.
In a hypothetical second-round runoff between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, polling suggests the result would be an almost dead heat (Zelensky would get 42 percent compared to Zaluzhny’s 40 percent). If Zelensky was hoping Zaluzhny’s job in London would remove him from the political fray, he miscalculated.
However, while speculation swirls around Zaluzhny, his own plans are unclear, and very little is known about his political opinions. His comments suggest he wants Ukraine to be a militarized “outpost of the free world,” and supports curbing democratic freedoms to defeat Russian authoritarianism. Neither position is likely to be very popular with voters in a country exhausted by war. It’s also entirely possible that Zaluzhny wants to pursue a career in the West and has no interest in seeking the presidency.
Supporters of ex-president Petro Poroshenko—who has a united party and loyal electorate—are also preparing for elections. But Poroshenko is disliked by a broad swath of voters, and has little chance of increasing his support beyond the 25 percent who cast their ballots for him in 2019. He is reportedly conducting secret negotiations with Zaluzhny about a possible alliance, although it’s unclear how this would benefit Zaluzhny.
Poroshenko’s unpopularity means that he is instead focusing on parliamentary elections, where his party, European Solidarity, has a shot at winning as a result of the challenges facing Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, as well as a lack of other serious contenders.
Zelensky, though, is taking Poroshenko’s ambitions seriously. The Ukrainian authorities have hinted at the possibility of sanctioning Poroshenko, while Poroshenko’s son, who lives abroad, was fined for draft-dodging. For the moment, no real action has been taken against Poroshenko—but the departure from power of the Democratic Party in the United States (traditionally seen as one of his major supporters) means he has become more vulnerable.
The prospect of elections has also prompted other potential pro-Europe candidates in Ukraine to put themselves forward and establish contacts with the new team in the White House. For example, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko met Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, at a conference in Paris. And former parliamentary speaker Dmytro Razumkov, whose political rise was interrupted by the war, has been outspoken in his criticism of the government’s attempts to find a way to mobilize men aged under 25. Finally, there have been reports of Zelensky’s team trying to discredit Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, whom they see as a threat.
Some new faces are also emerging. Gennadiy Druzenko, the volunteer organizer of a mobile hospital, has launched what appears to be a political career. There are also rumors that the publicity-hungry Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, could throw his hat into the ring. Polling suggests that Budanov has a higher trust rating than Zelensky (though not than Zaluzhny).
It’s difficult to imagine there is a future for any pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine—even after the end of the war. But Ukrainians who are worried about the status of the Russian language and the pressure on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate comprise a political constituency that shows no sign of disappearing.
The only pro-Russia heavyweight to survive on the political scene since the full-scale invasion in 2022 is the former head of Opposition Platform–For Life, Yuri Boyko, who retains his seat in parliament. Sergei Levochkin, who was a negotiator for the old, pro-Russian elite and now acts as a mediator between Boyko and the authorities, also still has a seat. And Odesa Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov is building a career by defending the interests of Russian speakers, opposing those who want to remove all names associated with Russia or the Soviet Union from Ukrainian towns and cities.
Others seeking the votes of Russian-speaking Ukrainians include former Zelensky supporters who have quarreled with the president: Oleksiy Arestovych, Artem Dmytruk, and Oleksandr Dubinsky. These politicians don’t have much chance of success, but their critical rhetoric damages Zelensky, weakening his image as leader of all Ukrainians.
On paper, Zelensky has a good shot at being reelected. As long as he avoids a direct confrontation with Zaluzhny, he’s almost certain to win. Of course, he won’t replicate his electoral triumph of 2019, but he should be able to beat the candidates from the old elite and any political newbies.
At the same time, it’s becoming increasingly tempting for Zelensky to delay elections beyond the end of the war. After all, Zelensky and his team have gotten used to ruling in a period of perpetual crisis that has cast the president as the nation’s savior.
Nevertheless, the limitations on rights and freedoms that were accepted at the start of the war are increasingly unpopular. And suspicions that Zelensky wants to retain his emergency powers for as long as possible are spreading. For the moment, the president continues to maintain that elections can only be held after the war has been brought to a just conclusion. But the accusation leveled at Zelensky of usurping power, which once looked like Russian propaganda, is beginning to stick. He needs to find an answer.
