Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration, he had a much-anticipated phone call with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Both sides have kept a diplomatic silence over who initiated the call, but the very fact that it took place and lasted almost an hour and a half looks like a major win for the Russian leader. Effectively, the long-awaited negotiations between Moscow and Washington on the fate of Ukraine have been launched in the format that best suits Putin.
In addition, the Russian president is entering into a dialogue at a time when negotiations appear desirable but by no means necessary for Russia to achieve its goals in its war against Ukraine. For Putin, this is a window of opportunity that he would of course like to make the most of, but virtually any outcome will be a good result for Moscow.
There’s certainly no guarantee that Trump will accept all of the Kremlin’s many demands and agree to a full-scale “deal.” But there are plenty of other possible outcomes that will still benefit Russia, such as the erosion of Western unity, Ukraine being forced to accept what the Kremlin terms “reality” (territorial losses), and a reduction in Western support for Kyiv.
Even the very attitude and approach of Trump and his team to potential negotiations is playing into Putin’s hands. Hours before the phone call took place, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said publicly that a return to Ukraine’s 2014 borders is unrealistic, and so is the country’s bid to join NATO. While similar conclusions have been expressed behind closed doors, it was the first time they had been acknowledged at such a senior level, drawing new lines within Western debates on Ukraine.
For now, the prospect of a full-scale “deal” looks unlikely: the U.S. and Russian positions are too far apart. Putin’s key goal remains a “friendly Ukraine,” which is not about territorial divides or the security of the contact line, but about guarantees that Ukraine as a whole will turn away from the path of Western development upon which it has embarked.
In practical terms, that would mean persuading the West to withdraw from Ukraine in every sense. Russia’s deputy foreign minister has already said the Kremlin would require “cast-iron guarantees” that Ukraine will not join NATO. It would also mean annulling Ukraine’s existing bilateral security agreements with Western countries, not to mention a change in the country’s political leadership, the rewriting of the Ukrainian constitution, and much more.
Russia also requires guarantees that there will be no full-fledged army, Western weapons, or military bases in Ukraine. Trump’s position, meanwhile—mineral resources in exchange for Washington’s support, and European peacekeepers on the contact line—appears to have little in common with Moscow’s vision. In addition, it’s not just a question of what Trump wants, but what he can actually do. A full-fledged deal that would be acceptable to Russia would require the active participation of other Western countries and, of course, Ukraine itself.
At the same time, Moscow is clearly not prepared to soften its demands too drastically. Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he believes Russia can achieve its goals in Ukraine without any U.S.-brokered deal. As far as he is concerned, Moscow simply needs to wait until Ukraine falls apart of its own accord, after which the Russian army will crush any remaining resistance among the Ukrainian army.
Trump’s attempts to force Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia and to make Europe “own responsibility for its own security” are only helping Moscow advance toward its own goals in this war. For Putin, therefore, talks with Trump are a secondary issue, eclipsed by what is nothing less than an existential goal for him: ensuring a “friendly Ukraine.”
The Kremlin’s most basic task right now is to keep Washington in a constructive mindset toward Russia. That in itself is already facilitating the achievement of Putin’s goals in Ukraine, so the Russian leader is prepared to pay a certain price to preserve this conducive atmosphere.
That price could take the form of what are effectively hostage exchanges (even if the equivalence of the most recent exchange is dubious), the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war, and perhaps even in the future, suspending hostilities temporarily or sending someone not too senior to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose legitimacy Putin does not recognize.
It will be a lengthy bargaining process in which Moscow is ready for any outcome, from limited agreements to ending all dialogue and even military escalation. The Russian leadership will try to avoid that last option—but not at any cost.
Now that the first substantial telephone conversation has taken place, the tricky business of preparations for a meeting between the two presidents begins. Washington has made a concession by distancing Special Representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg from direct contact with Moscow: there is reason to believe that Trump himself has cooled toward Kellogg’s approach to the issue in recent weeks in favor of greater pragmatism.
It is not yet clear who will represent Russia in any negotiating delegation, but it’s unlikely to be a figurehead like Vladimir Medinsky, whom Putin named as his chief negotiator in the conflict back in 2022. Putin may well use him in negotiations with Kyiv, however, if necessary.
Figures such as the Ukrainian-born Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund; the oligarch Roman Abramovich; and former Kremlin chief of staff Alexander Voloshin are often mentioned as informal intermediaries in establishing the current contacts, and each of them can indeed play a certain role in communications. But their influence should not be exaggerated. Anything of any real importance either has Putin’s approval or happens at his instigation.
Of course, much in the negotiations will be determined by external, rapidly changing circumstances: above all, by the state of play at the front, and in Ukrainian domestic politics. Russia is sorely tempted to try simply waiting for Ukraine to become more vulnerable—both in military and political terms—and then ramp up the pressure, radically improving its negotiating position. Especially since right now, negotiations with Washington will not give Moscow what it wants anyway. For now, therefore, it is enough for Russia to keep Trump in a positive mindset, and that’s something Putin does well.
